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冰川冻土 ›› 2006, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 457-466.

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 •    下一篇

中国冰川径流的评估及其未来50a变化趋势预测

谢自楚1, 王欣2, 康尔泗2, 冯清华1, 李巧媛1, 程磊3   

  1. 1. 湖南师范大学, 资源与环境学院, 湖南, 长沙, 410081;
    2. 中国科学院, 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈与环境联合重点实验室, 甘肃, 兰州, 730000;
    3. 湖南涉外经济学院, 湖南, 长沙, 410205
  • 收稿日期:2005-12-21 修回日期:2006-02-20 出版日期:2006-08-25 发布日期:2012-04-26
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40371027);全国水资源综合规划服务项目“中国冰川和积雪及其水资源状况综合分析”资助

Glacial Runoff in China: An Evaluation and Prediction for the Future 50 Years

XIE Zi-chu1, WANG Xin2, FENG Qing-hua2, KANG Er-si1, LI Qiao-yuan1, CHENG Lei3   

  1. 1. Institute of Resources and Environment, Hunan Normal University, Changsha Hunan 410081, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Cryosphere and Environment, CAREERI, CAS, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;
    3. Hunan International Economics University, Changsha Hunan 410205, China
  • Received:2005-12-21 Revised:2006-02-20 Online:2006-08-25 Published:2012-04-26

摘要: 基于中国冰川编目资料,应用冰川系统对气候变化响应的功能模型,按照几种不同升温率的气候背景,对全国各大流域冰川径流进行了评估,并对未来50 a冰川径流的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明:1980年全国冰川总径流量615.7×108m3,在升温0.02 K·a-1及0.03 K·a-1情景下,2000年比1980年增大7.13%~10.8%,径流总量增至659.66×108m3~682.24×108m3;与此同时,冰川面积减少1.07%~1.62%,冰储量也减少1.14%~1.73%.2000—2030年全国冰川径流都将逐步增长,在2030年左右均达到了最高峰,径流增率ΔW/W0分别为9.6%及15.0%,总径流量分别为675.15×108m3,和707.91×108m3.2030年以后,全国冰川径流均开始从高峰缓慢回落,但直到2050年分别比初始径流量多8.6%及13.6%.因此,在2050年以前,特别是2030年前后是在上述气候情景下充分利用冰川融水的最好时机,但也是冰川洪水等灾害的多发期.就各流域来说,敏感型区径流高峰出现时间早而径流增率小,稳定型区则反之.如果出现极端的持续升温,如升温率为0.05 K·a-1,全国冰川径流增率可达26.5%,到21世纪末回落到1980年水平以下,而冰川储量损失达57%,届时中国西部生态环境将急剧恶化.

关键词: 冰川径流, 评估, 冰川系统, 变化预测

Abstract: Functional models of glacier system variation are established,on the basis of the structure of glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state(ELA0),using Kotlyakov-Krenkes’s equation relating annual ablation of glacier and mean summer temperature.The models are applied to study the response of glacial runoff to climatic change.The effect of decreasing air temperature due to rising of ELA0 and reduction of glacial area were taken into account.Based on the data of glacier inventories of China and the models,glacial runoff in China was calculated and possible variation trend of glacial runoff in the future 50 years was evaluated under different temperature rising rates.It is shown that: 1) The total glacial runoff of China was 615.7×108m3 in 1980,and was 659.66×108m3~682.24×108m3 in 2000,7.13%~10.8% more than that in the 1980s,yet the glacial area and volume decreased by 1.07%~1.62% and 1.14%~1.73%,respectively,from 1980 to 2000;2) The glacial runoff will continuously increase on the average from 2000 to 2030,and reach the maximum,about 675.15×108m3~707.91×108m3,in about 2030,with a rate of 9.6~15.0%;3) After 2030,the glacial runoff will decrease,but until 2050 the total glacial runoff will be 8.6~13.6% more than that in the 1980s on the average.So it is a favorable opportunity to utilize the glacial runoff in the years from 2000 to 2050,but it is also the period with high-frequent hazards from glaciers;4) Under the extremely climate warming scenario,0.05 K·a-1,the glacial runoff increasing rate will amount to 26.5% at the runoff climax and the glacial runoff level will be lower than that of the 1980s and 57% of glacial volume will be lost by the end of this century.

Key words: glacial runoff, evaluation, glacier system, variation prediction

中图分类号: 

  • P343.6