喜马拉雅山中段波曲流域近期冰湖溃决危险性分析与评估

冰川冻土 ›› 2007, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 509-516.

喜马拉雅山中段波曲流域近期冰湖溃决危险性分析与评估

陈晓清^1,2, 崔鹏^1,2, 杨忠², 齐永青²

1. 中国科学院, 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 四川, 成都, 610041;
2. 中国科学院, 成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 四川, 成都, 610041

收稿日期:2006-11-18 修回日期:2006-12-29 出版日期:2007-08-25 发布日期:2012-04-26
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金西部重大研究计划项目(90202007);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(40025103)资助

Risk Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst in the Poiqu River Basin of Tibet Autonomous Region

CHEN Xiao-qing^1,2, CUI Peng^1,2, YANG Zhong², QI Yong-qing²

1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Sichuan 610041, China;
2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Sichuan 610041, China

Received:2006-11-18 Revised:2006-12-29 Online:2007-08-25 Published:2012-04-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 西藏聂拉木县波曲流域内分布有大量的冰湖,对2000/2001年度卫星遥感数据遥感解译获取了冰湖的分布及面积;对比1987年的数据发现,经过15 a流域内冰湖数量和面积均发生了巨大的变化.通过野外考察获取了重要冰湖的溢流状态、冰碛堤稳定性、冰川影响等资料,在此基础上使用直接判别法和冰湖溃决危险性指数(I_dl)进行了冰湖溃决危险性评价,所有冰湖中有9个处于高度危险状态的,3个处于较高危险的,2个处于稳定状态,其余35个处于相对稳定或趋于衰退状态.冲堆普下游、科亚普下游和主河至科亚普汇口以下为高度危险区,塔吉岭普下游、如甲普下游和章藏布下游处于较高危险,其他支沟下游及所有上游区处于冰湖溃决相对安全区.基于危险性评价结果,建议下游根据危险性大小,采取相应的应对措施以减轻冰湖溃决泥石流的危害.

关键词: 波曲流域, 冰湖, 溃决, 危险性

Abstract: There are many glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin,Nyalam County,Tibet Autonomous Region.Based on interpreting the remote sensing data of Landsat satellite,2000/2001,the distribution and area of glacial lakes are obtained.Compared with the data of 1987,it is found that their number and area changed greatly: the area of glacial lakes increased 46% and the number of the lakes in area over 0.02 km² increased 11%.Especially,the Galongco and Gangxico increased 104% and 118%,respectively.Field investigation revealed the overfall conditions of some key lakes,the stability of moraine dams,and the impact of glaciers.Using direct distinguishing and risk indexes of glacial lake outburst(I_dl),respectively,two types of risk assessments have been completed.Risk assessment shows that there are nine glacial lakes at high dangerous degree,three at middle degree,and two at stable state and the other 35 at relative stable state.In this basin,there are high danger regions in the lower reaches of Chongdui gully,Keya gully and the confluence spot of Keya gully and Poiqu River,and of middle degree,the lower reaches of Tajiling gully, Rujia gully and Zhangzang gully,and safe regions in the other places.In order to mitigate harm to Nyalam and Zham port,a series of countermeasures is put forward,such as: 1) designing mitigation programme on the base of risk assessment,2) pre-warning and emergency programme,3) periodical professional measure and 4) public warning and prevention system.

Key words: Poiqu River, glacial lake, outburst, risk assessment

中图分类号:

P343.6

陈晓清, 崔鹏, 杨忠, 齐永青. 喜马拉雅山中段波曲流域近期冰湖溃决危险性分析与评估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(4): 509-516.

CHEN Xiao-qing, CUI Peng, YANG Zhong, QI Yong-qing. Risk Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst in the Poiqu River Basin of Tibet Autonomous Region[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2007, 29(4): 509-516.

参考文献

[1] Xu Daoming,Feng Qinghua.Dangerous glacial lake and outburst features in Xiang Himalayas[J].Acta Geographical Sinica,1989,44(3):343-352.[徐道明,冯清华.西藏喜马拉雅山区危险冰湖及其溃决特征[J].地理学报,1989,44(3):343-352.]
[2] Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS and Institute of Traffic Science of Tibet.Debris flow and Environment in Tibet[M].Chengdu:Sichuan University Press,1999:69-78.[中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,西藏自治区交通科学研究所.西藏泥石流与环境[M].成都:四川科技大学出版社,1999:69-78.]
[3] Chen Xiaoqing,Cui Peng,Yang Zhong,et al.Cause and prevention countermeasure of 2002 debris flow of Chongdui gully in Nyalam county[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(5):776-781.[陈晓清,崔鹏,杨忠,等.聂拉木县冲堆普2002年泥石流成因分析及防治对策[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(5):776-781.]
[4] Shen Yongping,Jiao Keqin.Discussion on the pedogenesis and environment of paleosols on the moraine plateform in Nyalam,Xizang[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1989,11 (3):269-277.[沈永平,焦克勤.西藏聂拉木冰期平台古土壤的发生学及环境的初步研究[J].冰川冻土,1989,11(3):269-277.]
[5] Institute of Traffic Science of Tibet,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS.Study of Road Disasters Prevention of China-Nepal Highway from Nyalam to Youyi Bridge[M].Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technology Press,2003:11-35.[西藏自治区交通科学研究所,中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所.中尼公路聂友段公路病害整改对策研究[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,2003:11-35.]
[6] Liu Chaohai,Sharma C K.Report on First Expedition to Glaciers and Glacier Lakes in the Pumqu (Arun) and Poiqu (Bhote-Sun Kosi) River basins,Xizang (Tibet),China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1988:1-192.
[7] Che Tao,Jin Rui,Li Xin,et al.Glacial lakes variation and the potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Pumqu basin of Tibet during the last two decades[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2004,26(4):397-402.[车涛,晋锐,李新,等.近20a西藏朋曲流域冰湖变化及潜在溃决冰湖分析[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(4):397-402.]
[8] Che Tao,Li Xin,P K Mool,et al.Monitoring glaciers and associated glacial lakes on the east slopes of Mount Xixabangma from remote sensing images[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2005,27(6):801-805.[车涛,李新,P KMool,等.希夏邦马峰东坡冰川与冰川湖泊变化遥感监测[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6):801-805.]
[9] Jin Rui,Che Tao,Li Xin,et al.Glacier variation in the Pumqu basin derived from remote sensing data and GIS technique[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2004,26(3):261-266.[晋锐,车涛,李新,等.基于遥感和GIS的西藏朋曲流域冰川变化研究[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(3):261-266.]
[10] Chen Xiaoqing,Cui Peng,Yang Zhong,et al.Change and tendency of glaciers and glacier lakes in Poiqu River basin,Nyalam[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2005,27(6):793-800.[陈晓清,崔鹏,杨忠,等.近15a喜马拉雅山中段波曲流域冰川和冰湖变化[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6):793-800.]
[11] Chen Xiaoqing,Chen Ningsheng,Cui Peng.Calculation of discharge debris flow induced by glacier lake outburst[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2004,26(3):57-362.[陈晓清,陈宁生,崔鹏.冰川终碛湖溃决泥石流流量计算[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(3):57-362.]
[12] Li Jijun.Glacier Inventory of China,Hengduan Mountains[M].Beijing:Science Press,1996:1-122.[李吉均.横断山冰川[M].北京:科学出版社,1996:1-122.]
[13] Zheng Du,Lin Zhengyao,Zhang Xueqin.Progress in studies of Tibetan Plateau and global environment change[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2002,9(1):95-102.[郑度,林振耀,张雪芹.青藏高原与全球环境变化研究进展[J].地学前缘,2002,9(1):95-102.]

[1]	阿如汉, 涂杰楠, 刘红岩, 童立强, 郭兆成. 基于Fluent数值模拟的冰湖涌浪分析——以西藏聂拉木县嘉龙错为例[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 837-845.
[2]	曹学诚, 刘周周, 李维胜. 尼泊尔4·25地震震前冰湖制图与潜在危险性分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 573-583.
[3]	汪宙峰, 张廷山, 王成武. 西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰湖溃决的预测模型及其应用研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(2): 388-394.
[4]	高晓, 吴立宗, Pradeep K. Mool. 基于遥感和GIS的喜马拉雅山科西河流域冰湖变化特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(3): 557-569.
[5]	党超, 褚娜娜, 丁瑜. 冰湖溃决泥石流形成的临界条件[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(5): 1176-1183.
[6]	贾贵义, 全永庆, 黎志恒, 梁收运, 蒋魁, 刘德玉, 杨亚兵. 基于组合赋权法的白龙江流域甘肃段地质灾害危险性评价[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(5): 1227-1236.
[7]	孙美平, 刘时银, 姚晓军, 李龙. 2013年西藏嘉黎县“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水成因及潜在危害[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(1): 158-165.
[8]	祁元, 刘勇, 杨正华, 徐瑱, 方苗. 基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(1): 96-104.
[9]	王慧，毛炜峄，李元鹏，等. 新疆易灾暴雨的风险区划[J]. 冰川冻土, 2011, 33(6): 1407-1413.
[10]	刘晓尘;效存德;. 1974-2010年雅鲁藏布江源头杰玛央宗冰川及冰湖变化初步研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2011, 33(3): 488-0496.
[11]	沈永平;王国亚;丁永建;苏宏超;毛炜峄;王顺德;Duishen M Mamatkanov . 百年来天山阿克苏河流域麦茨巴赫冰湖演化与冰川洪水灾害 [J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(6): 993-1002.
[12]	程尊兰;朱平一;党超;;刘晶晶;. 藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流灾害及其发展趋势[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(6): 954-959.
[13]	岳志远, 曹志先, 车涛, 李新. 冰湖溃决洪水的二维水动力学数值模拟[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(5): 756-763.
[14]	岳志远, 曹志先, 车涛, 李新. 冰湖溃决洪水的二维水动力学数值模拟[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(5): 756-763.
[15]	王欣, 刘时银. 冰碛湖溃决灾害研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(4): 626-635.