中国西北近45a来极端低温事件及其对区域增暖的响应

冰川冻土 ›› 2007, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 536-542.

中国西北近45a来极端低温事件及其对区域增暖的响应

杨金虎^1,2, 沈永平³, 王鹏祥¹, 杨启国¹

1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃, 兰州, 730020;
2. 甘肃省定西市气象局, 甘肃, 定西, 743000;
3. 中国科学院, 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃, 兰州, 730000

收稿日期:2006-11-07 修回日期:2007-02-02 出版日期:2007-08-25 发布日期:2012-04-26
基金资助:
科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIB3J100;2004DIB5J192);甘肃省科学技术攻关计划项目(ZGS042-A44-017);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM200609)资助

Extreme Low Temperature Events in Northwest China and Their Response to Regional Warming in the Recent 45 Years

YANG Jin-hu^1,2, SHEN Yong-ping³, WANG Peng-xiang¹, YANG Qi-guo¹

1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and ReducingDisaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Dingxi City, Dingxi Gansu 743000, China;
3. Cold and Arid RegionsEnvironmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China

Received:2006-11-07 Revised:2007-02-02 Online:2007-08-25 Published:2012-04-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用中国西北五省(区)1960-2004年100个台站逐日最低温度资料,通过百分位法定义了不同台站的逐日极端低温阈值,对近45 a来西北地区逐年极端低温事件发生频次进行了时空诊断,并分析其同西北区域性增暖的响应.结果表明:一致性异常分布是中国西北年极端低温事件发生频次的最主要空间模态;中国西北年极端低温事件发生频次的空间分布可分为以下5个关键区:北疆区、青海北部区、西北东部区、南疆区及青南高原区;年极端低温事件发生频次除了青南高原区表现为微弱的减少趋势外,北疆区、青海北部区、西北东部区和南疆区均表现为显著的减少趋势,并且发生了突变现象.在年极端低温事件发生频次的各主要空间分区中,13～15 a和7～8 a的周期在所有分区中反映得比较清楚;年极端低温事件发生频次对西北区域性增暖呈显著负响应.

关键词: 中国西北, 极端低温, 时空演变, 增暖响应

Abstract: Using the daily minimum temperature data of 100 stations in Northwest China in 1960-2004,the thresholds of daily extreme low temperature are determined for different stations,diagnosis of the frequencies of temporal and spatial distributions of annual extreme low temperature events is made for the recent 45 a,and their response to regional warming in Northwest China is analyzed.The result shows that consistent anomaly distribution is the principal spatial mode of the frequencies of annual extreme low temperature events in Northwest China;it is found that the spatial mode can be divided into five key areas: north of Xinjiang Region,north of Qinghai Province,east of Northwest China,south of Xinjiang Region,and the plateau in south of Qinghai Province; It is proved that the frequencies of extreme low temperature events show a remarkable decreasing tendency in the north of Xinjiang Region,north of Qinghai Province,east of Northwest China and south of Xinjiang Region,with some abrupt changes.However,there is a weak decreasing tendency in the plateau in south of Qinghai Province.It is also found that the vibration periods of 13～15 a and 7-8 a are displayed very clear in all the five key areas.It is also proved that the frequencies of extreme low temperature events in Northwest China show a remarkable negative response to regional warming.

Key words: Northwest China, extreme low temperature, temporal and spatial evolution, response to warming

中图分类号:

P467

杨金虎, 沈永平, 王鹏祥, 杨启国. 中国西北近45a来极端低温事件及其对区域增暖的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(4): 536-542.

YANG Jin-hu, SHEN Yong-ping, WANG Peng-xiang, YANG Qi-guo. Extreme Low Temperature Events in Northwest China and Their Response to Regional Warming in the Recent 45 Years[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2007, 29(4): 536-542.

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