1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0049

冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 408-419.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0049

1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征

郝振纯¹, 杨荣榕¹, 陈新美², 陈玺¹, 梁之豪¹, 达娃顿珠³

1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏南京 210098;
2. 邯郸市水利局, 河北邯郸 056000;
3. 西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局拉萨水文水资源勘测大队, 西藏拉萨 850000

收稿日期:2012-09-22 修回日期:2012-12-16 出版日期:2013-04-25 发布日期:2013-05-14
作者简介:郝振纯(1958-), 男, 山西翼城人, 教授, 1988年在河海大学获博士学位, 主要从事水文物理规律及流域模拟和全球变化影响研究工作. E-mail:hzchun@hhu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40830639;41101015); 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951101); 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20110094110013); 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项(1069-50985512)资助

Tempo-Spatial Patterns of the Potential Evaporation in the Yangtze River Catchment for the Period 1960-2011

HAO Zhen-chun¹, YANG Rong-rong¹, CHEN Xin-mei², CHEN Xi¹, LIANG Zhi-hao¹, Dawa Dun-zhu³

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology & Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hehai University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210098, China;
2. The Bureau of Water Resources of Handan Municipality, HandanHebei 056001, China;
3. Hydrology Bureau of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa Tibet 850000, China

Received:2012-09-22 Revised:2012-12-16 Online:2013-04-25 Published:2013-05-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以长江流域123个气象站1960-2011年逐日气象数据为基础, 应用Penman-Monteith模型, 在ArcGIS环境下通过IDW插值法、 TFPW-MK、 R/S等方法分析了全流域潜在蒸发量变化的时空变化、趋势性和持续性, 并探讨了影响潜在蒸发量的主要气象因素.结果表明: 年潜在蒸发量自1960年以来至2002年呈波动减少趋势, 2003-2009年呈显著增加趋势, 整体为增加趋势; 其中, 上游高原区、上游盆地区、下游区年潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势, 中游区呈下降趋势, 增幅最大的是上游盆地区.四季中, 春、夏、秋季和年潜在蒸发量具有持续性, 未来将持续增加.最低气温、最高气温是影响长江流域潜在蒸发量增加的主要因子.

关键词: 长江流域, 潜在蒸发量, 变化趋势, Hurst指数, 相关分析

Abstract:

In this paper, annual and seasonal variations of potential evaporation were analyzed based on meteorological data from 123 observation stations in the Yangtze River catchment during 1960-2011, in combination with Penman-Monteith model. The changing tendency in potential evaporation over the catchment was analyzed by Mann-Kendall test with trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW-MK) analysis, Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis and method of Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) under ArcGIS. In addition, correlation analysis was used to extract the principal factor affecting the potential evaporation. The results demonstrate that the annual potential evaporation had a decreasing tendency between 1960 and 2002, but had an increasing tendency between 2003 and 2009; in its entirety, it had an increasing tendency. Spatially, in the upper plateau region, the upper basin region and the lower reaches the annual potential evaporation had a decreasing tendency, with a large amplification in the upper basin region, while in the middle region it had a decreasing tendency. The results of R/S analysis showed that potential evaporation in spring, summer, autumn and annual potential evaporation were persistent increasing, and will be increasing. The change of potential evaporation is mainly caused by the significant increase in highest air temperature and lowest air temperature.

Key words: Yangtze River catchment, potential evaporation, changing trend, Hurst index, correlation analysis

中图分类号:

P333

郝振纯, 杨荣榕, 陈新美, 陈玺, 梁之豪, 达娃顿珠. 1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(2): 408-419.

HAO Zhen-chun, YANG Rong-rong, CHEN Xin-mei, CHEN Xi, LIANG Zhi-hao, Dawa Dun-zhu. Tempo-Spatial Patterns of the Potential Evaporation in the Yangtze River Catchment for the Period 1960-2011[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2013, 35(2): 408-419.

参考文献

[1] Xie Xianqun, Wang Ling. Changes of potential evaporation in northern China over the past 50 years [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2007, 22(5): 683-691. [谢贤群,王菱.中国北方近50年潜在蒸发的变化[J].自然资源学报, 2007, 22(5): 683-691.]

[2] Ohmura A, Wild M. Is the hydrological cycle accelerating?[J]. Science, 2002, 298(5597): 1345-1346.

[3] Li Ren, Zhao Lin, Ding Yongjian, et al. Variation characteristics of global radiation over the Tibetan Plateau during the past 40 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012,34(6):1319-1327. [李韧,赵林,丁永建,等.近40 a来青藏高原地区总辐射变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(6):1319-1327.]

[4] Roderick M L, Farquhar G D. The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years[J]. Science, 2002, 298(5597): 1410-1411.

[5] Chattopadhyay N, Hulme M. Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1997, 87(1): 55-73.

[6] Xu C, Gong L, Jiang T, et al. Analysis of spatial distribution and temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in Changjiang (Yangtze River) catchment[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 327(1-2): 81-93.

[7] Jia Wenxiong, He Yuanqing, Wang Xufeng, et al. Temporal and spatial change of the potential evaporation over Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2006[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2009, 20(2): 159-167. [贾文雄,何元庆,王旭峰,等.祁连山及河西走廊潜在蒸发量的时空变化[J].水科学进展, 2009, 20(2): 159-167.]

[8] Zhu Guofeng, He Yuanqing, Pu Tao, et al. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in potential evaporation over Hengduan Mountains region from 1960 to 2009[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(7): 905-916. [朱国锋,何元庆,蒲焘,等. 1960-2009年横断山区潜在蒸发量时空变化[J].地理学报, 2011, 66(7): 905-916.]

[9] Yao Yubi, Yang Jinhu, Wang Runyuan, et al. Responses of net primary productivity of natural vegetation to climatic change over source regions of Yangtze River in 1959-2008[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011,33(6):1286-1293. [姚玉璧,杨金虎,王润元,等. 1959-2008长江源植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土, 2011,33(6):1286-1293.]

[10] Zhuo Ga, Jian Jun, Bianba Ciren. Runoff of the Jinsha River: Characteristics and its response to climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011, 33(2):405-415. [卓嘎,建军,边巴次仁. 1960-2004年金沙江径流量特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土, 2011, 33(2):405-415.]

[11] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. FAO, Rome, Italy, 1998: 1-300.

[12] Thornthwaite C W. An approach toward a rational classification of climate[J]. Geographical Review, 1948, 38(1): 55-94.

[13] Douglas E M, Vogel R M, Kroll C N. Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 240(1-2): 90-105.

[14] Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. Power of the Mann Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2002,259(1-4): 254-271.

[15] Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, et al. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2002, 16(9): 1807-1829.

[16] Yue S, Wang C Y. Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test[J]. Water Resources Research, 2002, 38(6), doi: 10.1029/2001WR000861.

[17] Theil H. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, I, II, III[J]. Nederl. Akad. Wetensch.Proc., 1950, 53: 386–392, 512–525, 1397–1412.

[18] Sen P K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau[J]. J. Am. Statist. Assoc., 1968, 63: 1379–1389.

[19] Li Xianbin, Ding Jing, Li Houqiang. The wavelet estimation of Hurst coefficient in hydrological timeseries[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1999, 30(8): 21-25. [李贤彬,丁晶,李后强.水文序列Hurst系数的子波估计[J].水利学报, 1999, 30(8): 21-25.]

[20] Xie Ping, Chen Guangcai, Lei Hongfu. Hydrological alteration analysis method based on Hurst coefficient[J]. Journal of Basic Science and Engineering, 2009, 17(1): 32-39. [谢平,陈广才,雷红富.基于Hurst系数的水文变异分析方法[J].应用基础与工程科学学报, 2009, 17(1): 32-39.]

[21] Gao Ge, Chen Deliang, Ren Guoyu, et al. Trend of potential evapotranspiration over China during 1956 to 2000[J]. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(3): 378-387. [高歌,陈德亮,任国玉,等. 1956-2000年中国潜在蒸散量变化趋势[J].地理研究, 2006, 25(3): 378-387.]

[22] Guo Jun, Ren Guoyu. Rencent change of pan evaporation and possible climate factors over the Huang-Huai-Hai watershed, China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(5): 666-672. [郭军,任国玉.黄淮海流域蒸发量的变化及其原因分析[J].水科学进展, 2005, 16(5): 666-672.]

[23] Li Guoliang, Fu Qiang, Sun Yong, et al. Grey relational analysis model based on weighted entropy and its application[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2006, 17(6): 15-18. [李国良,付强,孙勇,等.基于熵权的灰色关联分析模型及其应用[J].水资源与水工程学报, 2006, 17(6): 15-18.]

1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征

Tempo-Spatial Patterns of the Potential Evaporation in the Yangtze River Catchment for the Period 1960-2011

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	马力, 韦志刚, 李娴茹, 王欢, 郭仕侗. 2000年前后我国寒潮活动特征的比较分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44(6): 1757-1772.
[2]	殷宝玲,刘琪,王叶堂. 1961—2017年南极冰盖近地面风时空变化研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(5): 1383-1399.
[3]	蒋军新, 蔡明, 徐永军, 方功焕, 李稚, 陈永金. 新疆阿克苏河流域洪水演变趋势研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(4): 1200-1209.
[4]	陈虹举, 杨建平, 谭春萍. 基于概率分布法的典型内陆河流域径流未来变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2020, 42(4): 1299-1307.
[5]	柏睿, 李韧, 吴通华, 杜宜臻. 1979-2016年我国东北地区空中水汽状况及变化趋势分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(6): 1441-1447.
[6]	何彬彬, 盛煜, 黄龙, 黄旭斌, 张玺彦. 我国北疆地区1961—2017年冻融指数的变化趋势[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(5): 1107-1114.
[7]	李林凤, 李开明. 石羊河流域冰川变化与地形因子的关系探究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(5): 1026-1035.
[8]	王东升, 段朝雄, 袁树堂, 胡关东. 青藏高原东南缘迪庆地区年季蒸发皿蒸发、降水和径流深分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(2): 424-433.
[9]	尤明东, 李海波, 葛敏, 臧淑英. 黑龙江省冻土活动层厚度年际变化影响因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 480-491.
[10]	熊俊楠, 刘志奇, 范春捆, 张昊, 彭超, 孙铭. 1983-2013年西藏自治区气象灾害时空分布特征与变化趋势[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1221-1231.
[11]	布帕提曼·艾拜都拉, 买买提阿布都拉·依米尔, 阿依夏木古丽·买买提, 玉苏甫·阿布拉. 1961-2015年新疆和田地区不同级别降水事件变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1326-1335.
[12]	李育鸿, 李计生, 孙超, 黄晨璐. 甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(3): 651-659.
[13]	蔡鹏, 李芳, 王政权, 赵娴. 1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1538-1543.
[14]	石磊, 杜军, 周刊社, 卓嘎. 1980-2012年青藏高原土壤湿度时空演变特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(5): 1241-1248.
[15]	陈惠雄, 王晓鹏. 黑河流域居民水幸福感实证研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 845-852.