1970-2013年南疆渭干河-库车河流域绿洲冰雹时空变化特征和棉花受灾分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0186

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 渭干河-库车河绿洲是南疆地区主要棉花生产基地之一, 随着气候变化和棉花种植面积的日益扩大, 雹灾对棉花生产的危害日趋严重. 利用该地区4个气象站44 a逐一地面降雹过程资料和33 a灾情信息, 对冰雹时空变化特征、活动规律、强度、受灾面积和影响因素等进行研究. 结果表明: 降雹空间分布为北部靠山地带多于南部平原地带, 受灾面积的空间分布则相反; 降雹以周期短、强季节性特征为主, 各县中等以上降雹天气占80%以上, 降雹趋于高发和强发的态势. 降雹频次与气温和降水呈较好的相关性, 冰雹多发年气温偏低、降水偏多, 冰雹少发年气温偏高、降水偏少. 位于南部靠近沙漠的沙雅县受灾最为严重, 雹灾与降雹强度、地域、季节和作物面积及类型等有关, 该地区棉花受灾机率大.

关键词: 冰雹, 时空变化, 棉花受灾, 影响因子, 渭干河-库车河绿洲

Abstract: Ogan-Kuchar River oases are one of the major production bases of cotton in southern Xinjiang. Due to climate change and expanding cotton plant area, cotton production suffers more and more hail damage. In this paper, based on 44-year hail data from 4 meteorological stations and 33-year hail disaster information from departments of local civil administration, the hail damage area and temporal variation of the hail hazards, hail intensity, hail activity pattern, damaging and controlling factors are analyzed. It is found that hail events in northern mountain areas are more than that in southern plains, but the damage area in northern mountain areas is less than that in southern plains; hail events are characterized by short period and distinct seasonality; there are 80% hail events with the intensity above average; hail events are occurring frequently and powerfully. Hail frequency has negative correlation with air temperature and positive correlation with precipitation. Shayar County, located in the south nearby desert area, is extremely damaged by hail, where intensity and damage of hail disaster, as well as the crop area and type, closely relate to seasonal and geographical features. The county has greater probability of cotton damage.

Key words: hail, temporal and spatial variation, cotton damage, impact factor, Ogan-Kucha River oases

中图分类号:

S427

热苏力·阿不拉, 牛生杰, 玉素甫·阿不拉, 王红岩, 玉苏甫·买买提. 1970-2013年南疆渭干河-库车河流域绿洲冰雹时空变化特征和棉花受灾分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1556-1564.

Rasul Abla, NIU Shengjie, Yusup Abla, WANG Hongyan, Yusup Mamat. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of hail events and damaged cotton in the Ogan-Kuchar River oases of southern Xinjiang during 1970-2013[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2014, 36(6): 1556-1564.

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