关键词: 伊朗高压, 持续高温, 0℃层高度, 雪线高度, 消融洪水, 南疆

Abstract: Begun in mid-July through early August of 2015, Xinjiang was controlled by the eastward shift of the Iran high pressure and the Tarim River basin and its surrounding areas were suffered a rare high-temperature weather, when in Southern Xinjiang Region and the Tianshan Mountains the average temperature in July reached 27.9℃ and 17.8℃, respectively, 2.3℃ and 2.6℃ higher than that in normal year. In that time, in Southern Xinjiang Region and the Tianshan Mountains there were a total of 42 stations occurred July average temperature breaking through historical extreme, from high altitude to the ground air temperature increased at the same time and the 0℃ layer height was higher than snowline altitude, leading to many rivers occurred snow and ice meltwater flood and causing different flood disasters. Owing to high temperature, the plurality of snow and ice meltwater flood with plenty of water and heat made the southern rivers exceeded the warning flow and ensure flow. For instance, the Niya River appeared the second flood in the measured record, the Kumalake River appeared the third flood in the measured record. River flood range was wide, flood duration was longest in history record, for example, in the Yarkant River, Yulong Kashi River and Karakash River the hyper alert flow time had more than half a month and in the Yarkant River reached 25 days. Analyzing the historic snow and ice meltwater flood found that between peak flow and daily flow(flood)has good correlation with high temperature, based on which snow and ice meltwater flood forecasting model can be established, which has applied to the 2015 summer flood, showing obvious good effect and useful in future forecast of such flood.

Key words: Iran high pressure, continuous high temperature, 0℃ level height, snowline altitude, snow and ice meltwater flood, Southern Xinjiang Region