气候变化背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件时空演变分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0148

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变化对暴雨洪涝等极端天气事件的发生产生了显著影响，识别气候变化背景下暴雨事件的时空变化特征是暴雨洪涝灾害综合应对的关键.以淮河流域为研究区，基于流域内229个气象站点1950-2012年的实测逐小时降水数据，遵循淮河流域实际情况对暴雨事件进行场次划分，并以此作为基础统计单元，借助地理信息系统平台，运用统计学方法并结合气象学理论，以场次暴雨事件开始时间、达到雨强峰值历时、场次平均暴雨历时及暴雨事件发生频次4个指标分析不同年代背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件发生的过程变化及时空演变特征.结果表明：在气候变化的背景下，场次暴雨发生时间呈现宽幅化和极值化的变化趋势，暴雨发生时间出现了后移和双峰化的特征；暴雨历时及到达雨强峰值历时均呈现增加趋势，整个流域场次暴雨事件在1990s-2000s进入一个增加时期；全球性的气候变化使流域内暴雨事件发生的频次不断增加，历时不断增大，长历时高频次特征明显，尤其是近20 a来，淮河流域暴雨事件高发区域呈现出从流域部分地区向全流域扩张的趋势.

关键词: 气候变化, 场次暴雨事件, 时空演变, 淮河流域

Abstract:

Global climate change has a significant impact on the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as heavy rain and floods. Distinguishing features of temporal and spatial variation of rainstorm events in the background of climate change is the key to response the heavy rain and flood disaster. In this paper, the Huai River basin is taken as the study area. Based on the hourly precipitation data of 229 meteorological stations from 1951 to 2012, the study, combined with the theory of statistical and meteorology, using the Mann Kendall mutation test and moving t-test as well as IDW spatial interpolation method, has analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, duration, intensity and frequency of isolated rainstorm events in the context of climate change. The result shows that under the influence of climate change, the occurrence time of isolated rainstorm events appear a change tendency of extremer and wider, and the characteristics of the occurrence time of isolated rainstorm events appear obvious bimodal and moving backward phenomena. Moreover, the average duration of isolated rainstorm and the duration of isolated rainstorm attaining its peak intensities have increased, isolated rainstorm events of entire basin have increased too. Global climate change makes the frequency and the duration showing a rising trend in the basin, characterized by long duration and high frequency. Especially in the last 20 years, the high incidence rainstorm areas of the Huai River basin have expanded from some areas to the whole basin.

Key words: climate change, isolated rainstorm events, spatial and temporal variations, Huai River basin

中图分类号:

P467

刘思敏, 王浩, 严登华, 秦天玲. 气候变化背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件时空演变分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(5): 1264-1272.

LIU Simin, WANG Hao, YAN Denghua, QIN Tianling. Spatial-temporal evolution of isolated rainstorm events in Huai River basin under the background of climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(5): 1264-1272.

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