额尔齐斯河流域上游地区近50 a来气温和降水变化的DFA分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0085

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为查明新疆境内额尔齐斯河流域年及季节性气温和降水变化规律，并对未来的可能变化趋势做出预测，基于去趋势波动分析法（DFA）对流域近50 a来的气温、降水序列的平均值和极端值进行分析. 研究表明，年降水及春、夏的降水序列有较好的长程相关性，在较长时间尺度内均有继续保持原有趋势的可能，即年降水继续增加，春、夏降水维持稳定；秋、冬季降水则呈现弱持续性和强随机性，在短时间尺度上保持现状，长时间尺度上则存在改变的可能. 年均温及夏、秋、冬温也将继续保持升温的趋势，春季长时间尺度上存在改变的可能. 流域内温度和降水都将保持增长的趋势，而且温度的持续上升相对降水具有更高的可能性. 由DFA方法确定的极端阈值及相应极值序列显示：20世纪80年代以来，极端高温和极端降水事件开始增多，且量值增大，准周期变短，但极端高值并没有显著提高；极端低温事件的发生次数减少显著，平均值增大，同时低温极值增高明显，冬季气温对全球变化的响应更为敏感.

关键词: 去趋势波动分析(DFA), 气候变化, 极值, 额尔齐斯河流域

Abstract: The Irtysh River basin is a significant part of North Xinjiang, where snow and ice meltwater, as well as precipitation, are abundant. The total water resources, which mostly make up of snowmelt runoff, come second in Xinjiang, with the main flood season from spring to early summer. Hydrological processes respond obviously to climate warming and increasing precipitation. In order to ascertain the variation and to predict possible climate change in the study area. Air temperature and precipitation's mean and extreme values in the last 50 years are analyzed with Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. It is found that annual, spring and summer precipitations have long-range correlations, and will maintain this trend for a long time. Autumn and winter precipitations are less sustainability with strong randomness. Annual mean, summer, autumn and winter temperatures also have increasing tendency. However, spring temperature may have long time scale variation. In a nutshell, air temperature continually rising has relatively higher possibility than precipitation rising. But the dominant factors are different. Regional precipitation change is more likely associated with the anomaly of atmospheric circulation. Extreme thresholds calculated by DFA and corresponding figures indicate that since the 1980s, extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation events has begun to increase whereas extremely high values have not improved significantly; extreme low temperature events have reduced sharply and values have increased distinctly. Compared with other climate factors, winter temperature shows higher sensitivity to climate change.

Key words: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), climate change, extreme value, Irtysh River basin

中图分类号:

P457

高沈瞳, 徐长春. 额尔齐斯河流域上游地区近50 a来气温和降水变化的DFA分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(3): 706-716.

GAO Shentong, XU Changchun. Detrended fluctuation analyses on precipitation and air temperature in the headwaters of the Irtysh River basin over the last 50 years[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2014, 36(3): 706-716.

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