X img

官方微信

img

群号:冰川冻土交流群

QQ群:218834310

高级检索
作者投稿 专家审稿 编辑办公 编委办公 主编办公

冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 587-595.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0066

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆乌鲁木齐地区积雪深度演变规律及对气候变化的响应

陈春艳1, 李毅2, 李奇航3   

  1. 1. 新疆气象台, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    2. 西北农林科技大学 水利与建筑工程学院, 陕西 杨凌 712100;
    3. 兰州大学 数学与统计学院, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-12 修回日期:2015-06-08 出版日期:2015-06-25 发布日期:2015-09-29
  • 通讯作者: 李毅, E-mail: liyikitty@126.com. E-mail:liyikitty@126.com
  • 作者简介:陈春艳(1969-), 女, 甘肃武威人, 高级工程师, 1991年毕业于南京气象学院, 主要从事新疆灾害性天气分析及其预报技术研究. E-mail: chency357@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金新疆联合基金项目(U1203182);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106007);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费(YQ2013006);国家自然科学基金项目(41271083;41201062)资助

Snow cover depth in Ürümqi region, Xinjiang: evolution and response to climate change

CHEN Chunyan1, LI Yi2, LI Qihang3   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Meteorological station, Ürümqi 830002, China;
    2. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
    3. School of mathematics and statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2015-01-12 Revised:2015-06-08 Online:2015-06-25 Published:2015-09-29

摘要: 积雪深度D是水文模型和气象预测中的重要参数之一. 基于新疆乌鲁木齐站1961-2013年积雪深度D及气象资料, 分析了积雪起止日期、持续期特征和D的时间变化规律, 并对比了不同模型对于D过程变化的适配效果. 此外, 对最大积雪深度Dmax进行了趋势检验, 并简要分析了气象要素对DDmax的影响. 结果表明: 乌鲁木齐积雪的持续期在73~207 d范围变化, 平均持续141 d, 积雪开始日期和终止日均呈推迟趋势, 积雪持续期呈增加趋势, 但其趋势均不显著. 可将积雪年内的D变化类型分为多峰缓变型、右偏型、尖峰型以及平峰型4种, 分别用不同模型适配后发现整体上模拟效果较好的是Gaussian函数. 在1961-2013年53 a期间的Dmax不具有自相似结构, 但有显著上升趋势. 气温尤其是最低气温与的D相关性最好, 冷季降水总量与Dmax有的正相关关系, 表明气温和同时期降水与积雪变化关系密切. 春季迅速升温过程及一定的累积积雪深度可能令融雪型洪水爆发, 其对应的年型为尖峰型和平峰型.

关键词: 积雪深度, 趋势检验, 气象要素, 乌鲁木齐

Abstract: Snow cover depth (D) is one of the important parameters for hydrological model and meteorological forecast. Based on snow cover depth and meteorological data during 1961-2013 at Ürümqi Station, the initial date, the ending date and the duration of snow cover and the temporal variation of D within a snow cover year were analyzed. The fitting effects of quadratic function, Gaussian model, Lorentzian model and lognormal model for D process were compared. In addition, the trend test of the maximal snow depth (Dmax) was conducted; the influence of climate factors on D and Dmax were also discussed briefly. The results showed that the duration of snow cover in Ürümqi lasts for 73 to 207 days, with an average of 141 days. Both the initial date and ending date are postponing and the duration of snow cover is increasing, but not significantly. The time-curves of D within a snow cover year can be classified as four types, i.e., multi-hump and flat type (a), right-skewed type (b), pinnacle type (c) and flat hump type (d). After the D series within a snow cover year being fitted for four curve types, it was found that the Gaussian function was generally good. Thus, the annual variations of the three parameters in Gaussian function over 1961-2013 were obtained. There is no auto-correlation structure in Dmax series, but there is a significant upward trend in it. Among the climate factors, air temperature, especially the minimal temperature, has negative correlation to D; while precipitation within cold season has positive correlation to Dmax. Fast increasing of air temperature in spring and enough snow cover depth may result in snow-melt type flood, which usually corresponds to the time-curves of D of pinnacle type and flat hump type.

Key words: snow depth, trend test, climate factors, Ürümqi

中图分类号: 

  • P426.63