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冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 1075-1086.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0120

• 寒旱区水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析

齐冬梅1, 李跃清1, 陈永仁2, 赵旋1, 周长艳1   

  1. 1. 中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610072;
    2. 四川省气象台, 四川 成都 610072
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-06 修回日期:2015-04-19 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2016-01-18
  • 作者简介:齐冬梅(1983-), 女, 云南昭通人, 助理研究员, 2008年在中国气象科学研究院获硕士学位, 现主要从事气候变化研究. E-mail: qidongmei1983@163.com.
  • 基金资助:
    四川省气象局科学技术研究开发课题(2014-青年-03); 国家自然科学基金项目(41305082; 41375116); 中国工程院咨询研究项目“气候变化对三江源与青海湖水资源影响评估、 未来趋势估测与应对”资助

Changing characteristics and cause analysis of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River under the background of climate change

QI Dongmei1, LI Yueqing1, CHEN Yongren2, ZHAO Xuan1, ZHOU Changyan1   

  1. 1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;
    2. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China
  • Received:2014-11-06 Revised:2015-04-19 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2016-01-18

摘要: 利用1960-2011年历年逐月长江上游通天河流域直门达水文站观测的流量资料、 长江源区气象台站观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料, 研究分析了长江源区径流变化特征及其气候归因. 结果表明: 2005年之前, 长江源区年及夏、 秋、 冬季的平均流量呈持续下降趋势, 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的平均流量均呈显著增加趋势. 其中, 以夏季平均流量的增幅最为明显, 年平均流量有4 a左右及12 a左右的变化周期. 高原夏季风、 长江源区夏季7、 8月地面感热、 流域降水量、 蒸发量、 气温及冰川和积雪融水均对长江源区流量变化有明显影响. 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的降水量呈明显的增加趋势, 而蒸发量呈明显的减少趋势. 同时, 温度急剧上升导致的冰川和积雪融水增多, 是2005年以来长江源区流量急剧增加的重要原因.

关键词: 径流, 长江源区, 气候变化, 高原季风

Abstract: Using the monthly hydrological and meteorological observational data in the source regions of the Yangtze River and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data from 1960 to 2011, the variation characteristics of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River and its climate cause have been analyzed by a variety of analytical methods in this paper. Results show that the annual mean runoff and runoffs in summer, autumn and winter had a persistent declining trend in the source regions of the Yangtze River before 2005, and the annual mean runoff and seasonal mean runoffs have a notable increasing trend in the source regions of the Yangtze River after 2005; especially in summer, the increasing trend is very obvious. In a long-term, the annual mean runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River varies obviously, with quasi-periods of 4-year and 12-year. The plateau summer monsoon, the surface sensible heat in the source regions from July to August, precipitation, evaporation, temperature and the meltwater from snow and glaciers have evident contribution to the variation of runoff. After 2005, the annual and seasonal precipitations in the regions have increased notably, but the annual and seasonal evaporations in the regions have decreased significantly; the meltwater from snow and glaciers has increased due to temperature increasing notably; all of these have caused runoff sharp increase in the source regions of the Yangtze River since 2005. Under the above background of climate change, the runoff has sharply increased in the source regions of the Yangtze River since 2005.

Key words: runoff, source region of the Yangtze River, climate change, plateau monsoon

中图分类号: 

  • P333