甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0125

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以甘肃省1949-2012年统计数据为基础数据, 分析了甘肃省64 a来耕地面积变化的特点, 计算最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数, 并运用GM(1, 1)模型预测未来15 a耕地压力指数变化. 结果表明: 1949-2012年的64 a时间里, 耕地面积增加了1.67×10⁴ hm², 最小人均耕地面积减少了0.526 hm², 耕地压力指数减少了0.951. 2012年14个地级市耕地压力指数差异大, 河西走廊大部分地区、陇东、陇南耕地压力指数低, 中部地区耕地压力指数高, 甘南地区耕地压力指数最高. 预测结果表明, 未来15 a甘肃耕地压力指数呈微弱的下降趋势, 耕地压力严峻.

关键词: 耕地, 模型, 压力指数, 甘肃省

Abstract: The changing features of cultivated land area were analyzed based on 64-a statistical yearbooks, the minimum per capital cultivated land area and pressure index of cultivated land in Gansu Province were calculated, and the tendency of pressure index of cultivated land in the future 15 years was estimated using the GM(1, 1) model. The results show that cultivated land had increased 1.67×10⁴hm², the minimum per capital cultivated land had reduced 0.526 hm², and the pressure index of cultivated land had reduced 0.951. It is found that the pressure index of cultivated land has difference among the 14 prefecture: lower than the warning line(k=1) in the most of the Hexi Corridor, east and south of the province, higher in the central sub-region of the province, highest in Gannan Autonomous Prefecture. It is estimated that pressure index of cultivated land will decrease slowly in the future 15 years, showing a serious cultivated land pressure.

Key words: cultivated land, model, pressure index of cultivated land, Gansu Province

中图分类号:

F301.2

孙国军. 甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4): 1120-1126.

SUN Guojun. Analysis of the dynamic change and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in Gansu Province[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2015, 37(4): 1120-1126.

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