关键词: 牧业关键期, 年际和年代际变化, 异常, 突变, 情景预测, 藏东北

Abstract: Based on daily mean air temperature data from ten meteorological stations in northeastern Tibet Autonomous Region from 1961 to 2013, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the animal husbandry critical periods(the pasture growing season, green grass period, livestock fatten period and livestock losing weight period) were analyzed by using the methods of inverse distance weighted, inear regression and Mann-Kendall test et al, and the animal husbandry critical period in the next 50 years and 100 years are estimated. The results show that:(1) in the 53 years, the duration of pasture growing season had lengthened with a rate of 1.70 d·(10a)^-1due to the ending date delayed and the duration of green grass period had increased with a rate of 1.53 d·(10a)^-1; the first date of livestock fatten period had no obvious changed, but the ending date of the period postponed, thus the period had extended with a rate of 1.84 d·(10a)^-1; the livestock losing weight period had shortened with a rate of 4.33 d·(10a)^-1, resulting in beginning date significantly postponed and the ending date obviously early. In addition, the change of the pasture growing season was positively related with longitude, and negatively related with altitude.(2) M-K mutation test shows that the duration of pasture growing season had an earlier mutation in 1998, the green grass period had an obvious abruptly lengthened in 2005, while the abrupt of livestock fatten period and livestock losing weight period occurred in 2003.(3) In terms of decadal variations, from the 1980s to the 2000s, the durations of pasture growing season, green grass period and livestock fatten period had increased, but the livestock losing weight period had decreased.(4) Under the climate warming scenario with a rate of 0.044℃·a^-1, the durations of pasture growing season, green grass period and livestock fatten period would lengthen with a rate of 20.2, 18.4, 21.6 days, respectively, in the next 50 years and with a rate of 40.3, 36.9, 43.2 days, respectively, in the next 100 years; while the livestock losing weight period would shorten with a rate of 23.2 days in the next 50 years and with a rate of 46.5 days in the next 100 years. Obviously, this change tendency will be very beneficial to animal husbandry production in northeastern Tibet Autonomous Region.

Key words: animal husbandry critical period, annual and decadal variations, anomalous, climate abrupt, scenarios projection, northeastern Tibet Autonomous Region