三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化及趋势预测

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0161

冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 1373-1384.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0161

三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化及趋势预测

李景保¹, 谷佳慧^1,2,3, 代稳¹, 吕殿青¹, 刘雯¹

1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 湖南长沙 410081;
2. 中国地质大学, 北京 100083;
3. 中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所, 广西桂林 541004

收稿日期:2016-05-04 修回日期:2016-08-27 出版日期:2016-10-25 发布日期:2017-01-22
通讯作者: 谷佳慧,E-mail:gu_jiahui@yeah.net. E-mail:gu_jiahui@yeah.net
作者简介:李景保,(1951-),男,湖南桂阳人,教授,主要从事水文水资源、自然灾害等方面的教学与研究.E-mail:lijingbao1951@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41571100）；湖南省重点学科（地理学）建设项目（41571100）资助

Hydrologic regime variation and trend prediction in the typical sections of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the TGR operation

LI Jingbao¹, GU Jiahui^1，2，3, DAI Wen¹, Lü Dianqing¹, LIU Wen¹

1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
2. School of the Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;
3. Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Guilin 541004, China

Received:2016-05-04 Revised:2016-08-27 Online:2016-10-25 Published:2017-01-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以1983-2014年长江中游5个水文站实测水文资料为依据，利用Morlet小波和ARIMA模型等方法，系统分析了三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化特征及其未来变化趋势.结果表明：三峡水库运行后，长江中游典型河段流量年际变化不显著，年内月分配较明显的趋于均匀化，这是气候波动与以三峡水库为标志的人类活动综合作用的结果；长江中游典型河段径流变化以18~26 a、8~13 a的周期变化较为明显，周期中心分别为22 a和12 a，并存在更小尺度的周期，三峡水库的运行对典型河段径流大尺度的变化周期影响微弱，对小尺度的变化周期产生了一定的影响；总体上，2014年以后典型河段流量将偏丰，并持续若干年.其中枝城站流量将在2014年以后一段时期呈增大趋势，由偏枯期转为偏丰期，大致持续到2017年；沙市、监利、城陵矶、螺山站流量在2011年由偏枯期转入偏丰期之后，一直呈增大趋势，将于2016年左右达到最大值，之后呈减小趋势，但仍将处于偏丰期，大约持续到2018年.

关键词: 水情变化, Morlet小波变换, ARIMA, 长江中游典型河段

Abstract:

Based on the hydrological data from five hydrological stations located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 1983 through 2014, the changing characteristics and long-term trend after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoirs (TGR) were systematically analyzed with the method of Morlet wavelet and ARIMA model. The result shows that:(1) Since the TGR operation, a tiny annual change of river discharge in the typical sections in the middle reaches of Yangtze river have been detected, and an obviously homogeneous trend of discharge within an year have been seen owing to climate variation and human activities. (2) River runoffs of the five typical sections in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River change with obvious periods of 18-26 a and 8-13 a, with cycle centers of 22 a and 12 a, respectively, and also with shorter cycles. The operation of the TGR has impacted more on the short changing period than long period. (3) Generally, since 2014, runoff of the five typical sections has been continuously abundant. Runoff in Zhicheng Station has increased after 2014 till 2017; after a shift from drought to wet in 2011, runoff in Shashi, Jianli, Chenglingji and Luoshan Stations have increased. It is expected that a maximum runoff will reach in 2016, after that then, a decreasing tendency will show up; wet runoff in period, however, will remain until 2018.

Key words: hydrological changing, Morlet wavelet transform, ARIMA, typical sections in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

中图分类号:

P333.1

李景保, 谷佳慧, 代稳, 吕殿青, 刘雯. 三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化及趋势预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(5): 1373-1384.

LI Jingbao, GU Jiahui, DAI Wen, Lü Dianqing, LIU Wen. Hydrologic regime variation and trend prediction in the typical sections of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the TGR operation[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(5): 1373-1384.

参考文献

[1] Benn P C, Erskine W D. Complex channel response to flow regulation:Cudgegong River below Windamere Dam, Australia[J]. Applied Geography, 1994, 14(2):153-168.

[2] Han Jianqiao, Sun Zhaohua, Huang Ying, et al. Features and causes of sediment deposition and erosion in Jingjiang reach after impoundment of the Three Gorges Project[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(3):36-41.[韩剑桥, 孙昭华, 黄颖, 等. 三峡水库蓄水后荆江沙质河段冲淤分布特征及成因[J]. 水利学报, 2014, 45(3):277-285.]

[3] Fang Chunming, Hu Chunhong, Chen Xujian. Impacts of Three Georges Reservoir's operation on outflow of the three outlets of Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(1):36-41.[方春明, 胡春宏, 陈绪坚. 三峡水库运用对荆江三口分流及洞庭湖的影响[J]. 水利学报, 2014, 45(1):36-41.]

[4] Ban Xuan, Jiang Liuzhi, Zeng Xiaohui, et al. Quantifying the spatio-temporal variation of flow and sediment in the middle Yangtze River after the impoundment of the Three Gorges[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 25(5):650-657.[班璇, 姜刘志, 曾小辉, 等. 三峡水库蓄水后长江中游水沙时空变化的定量评估[J]. 水科学进展, 2014, 25(5):650-657.]

[5] Zhang Debing, He Suping, Hu Guoxiang, et al. Preliminary analysis on runoff variation of middle Yangtze River after impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir[J]. Yangtze River, 2013, 44(1):1-4.[张德兵, 何素萍, 胡国祥, 等. 三峡水库蓄水后长江中游干流来水量变化分析[J]. 人民长江, 2013, 44(1):1-4.]

[6] Hu Xiangyang. Study of river channel evolution from Yichang to Hukou at downstream of Three Gorges Project[J]. Yangtze River, 2013, 43(24):1-4.[胡向阳. 三峡工程下游宜昌至湖口河道演变研究[J]. 人民长江, 2013, 43(24):1-4.]

[7] Wan Fengming, Long Lihua, Zhang Yue. Single valued processing of stage-discharge relation in the main cross section of middle reaches of Yangtze River[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2012(12):5-9.[万凤鸣, 龙立华, 张悦. 单值化处理长江中游主要断面水位流量关系研究[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2012(12):5-9.]

[8] Yao Zhijun, Guan Yanping, Gao Yingchun. Analysis of distribution regulation of annual runoff and affection to annual runoff by human activity in the Chaobaihe River[J]. Progress in Geography, 2003, 22(6):599-606.[姚治军, 管彦平, 高迎春. 潮白河径流分布规律及人类活动对径流的影响分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2003, 22(6):599-606.]

[9] Wang Huiqin. Wavelet analysis and application[M]. Beijing:Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Press, 2011:20-21.[王慧琴. 小波分析与应用[M]. 北京:北京邮电大学出版社, 2011:20-21.]

[10] Wang Shengwen, Ding jing, Li yueqing. Hydrological wavelet analysis[M]. Beijing:Chemical Industry Press, 2005:3-4.[王圣文, 丁晶, 李跃清. 水文小波分析[M]. 北京:化学工业出版社, 2005:3-4.]

[11] Deng Ziwang, Lin Zhenshan, Zhou Xiaolan. Multiple time scales analysis of Xi'an climate change for last 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1997, 16(1):81-93.[邓自旺, 林振山, 周晓兰. 西安市近50年来气候变化多时间尺度分析[J]. 高原气象, 1997, 16(1):81-93.]

[12] Liu Junping, Tian Fengwei, Huang Qiang, et al. The change law of the Yellow River runoff based on wavelet analysis research[J]. Progress in Natural Science, 2003, 13(4):383-387.[刘俊萍, 田峰巍, 黄强, 等. 基于小波分析的黄河河川径流变化规律研究[J]. 自然科学进展, 2003, 13(4):383-387.]

[13] Torrence C, Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(1):61-78.

[14] Fu Xinzhong, Feng Lihua, Chen Wenchen. Application of ARIMA-ANN model in the prediction of medium and long-term runoff[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2009, 20(5):105-109.[傅新忠, 冯利华, 陈闻晨. ARIMA与ANN组合预测模型在中长期径流预报中的应用[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2009, 20(5):105-109.]

[15] Li Xiguo, Liu Xianzhao. Study on ARIMA stochastic model for precipitation in Yantai region[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2006, 17(2):59-60.[李希国, 刘贤赵. 烟台地区降水量的ARIMA随机模型研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2006, 17(2):59-60.]

[16] Sun Yue, Li Dongliang. Features and response to climate-driven factors of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Weihe River in 1975-2011[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(2):413-423.[孙悦, 李栋梁. 1975-2011年渭河上游径流演变规律及对气候驱动因子的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(2):413-423.]

[17] Qi Dongmei, Li Yueqing, Chen Yongren, et al. Changing characteristics and cause analysis of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River under the background of climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(4):1075-1086.[齐冬梅, 李跃清, 陈永仁, 等. 气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4):1075-1086.]

[18] Huang Chenlu, Yang Qinke, Huang Weidong, et al. Analyzing the hydrological characteristics and differentiation over the typical small basins in the upper reaches of the Weihe River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(5):1312-1322.[黄晨璐, 杨勤科, 黄维东, 等. 渭河上游典型小流域水文特征差异性分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5):1312-1322.]

[19] Liu Chunteng, Zhan Chesheng, Xia Jun, et al. Review on the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(4):379-385.[刘春蓁, 占车生, 夏军, 等. 关于气候变化与人类活动对径流影响研究的评述[J]. 水利学报, 2014, 45(4):379-385.]

[20] Li Jingbao, Zhou Yongqiang, Ou Chaomin, et al. Silting/scouring process responses of Dongting Lake Basin to the operations of TGR and thresholds of water-sediment regulation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(1):108-117.[李景保, 周永强, 欧朝敏, 等. 洞庭湖与长江水体交换能力演变及对三峡水库运行的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(1):108-117.]

三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化及趋势预测

Hydrologic regime variation and trend prediction in the typical sections of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the TGR operation

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 12

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 10

[1]	李万志, 刘玮, 张调风, 时兴合. 气候和人类活动对黄河源区径流量变化的贡献率研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(5): 985-992.
[2]	石明星, 蓝永超, 沈永平, 田辉, 王欣, 喇承芳, 马虎迎. 1961-2014年黄河源区蒸发皿蒸发量变化的多尺度特征及突变分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 666-675.
[3]	徐金霞, 郭海燕, 徐沅鑫, 马振峰, 钟燕川. 基于FloodArea模型的小流域山洪灾害临界雨量阈值初探[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 812-819.
[4]	王淑红, 张钰, 王大超, 路贺, 杜丽芳. 1956-2016年渭河支流葫芦河流域径流及降水的年际变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(2): 370-377.
[5]	蓝永超, 朱云通, 刘根生, 喇承芳, 沈永平, 石明星. 黄河源区气候变化的季节特征与区域差异研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 741-749.
[6]	张核真, 卓玛, 向飞, 卓嘎, 格桑. 1981-2013年气候因子变化对西藏拉萨河径流的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5): 1304-1311.
[7]	蓝永超, 刘金鹏, 丁宏伟, 鲁承阳, 沈永平, 胡兴林, 喇承芳, 宋洁, 高黎明. 1960-2012年河西内陆河上游山区降水量变化及其区域性差异分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6): 1474-1480.
[8]	韩添丁, 丁永建, 叶柏生, 谢昌卫, 焦克勤, 陈鹏. 北大西洋涛动和北极涛动与新疆河川径流变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(1): 107-113.
[9]	丁永建, 叶佰生, 刘时银. 祁连山中部地区40a来气候变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2000, 22(3): 193-199.
[10]	金菊良, 杨晓华, 金保明, 丁晶. 门限回归模型在年径流预测中的应用[J]. 冰川冻土, 2000, 22(3): 230-234.
[11]	杨梅学, 姚檀栋, Ken’ichiUENO. 青藏高原唐古拉山北坡夏季风降水特征的初步分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 1999, 21(3): 233-236.
[12]	蓝永超, 康尔泗, 金会军, 张生才, 陈明征, 陈学林 . 黑河出山径流量年际变化特征和趋势研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 1999, 21(1): 49-53.