1961-2015年新疆和田地区不同级别降水事件变化特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0147

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探究新疆和田地区降水事件特征及在全球气候变化影响下的变化趋势，分析了该地区1961-2015年，7个气象站点的逐日降水数据，研究了不同级别降水量、降水日数和降水强度的年、季特征及变化趋势。结果表明：年平均降水量、日数、强度均为增加趋势，其变化率分别为3.7 mm·（10a）^-1、1.15 d·（10a）^-1、0.046 mm·d^-1·（10a）^-1，1986年为和田地区年平均降水和降水日数发生气候转折的年份，春、夏季转折时间与年际转折时间一致，冬季转折年份不明显。全地区年平均降水量为44.0 mm，小量降水占各级降水量的42.4%，夏、春季降水量占全年的78.4%；年均降水日数为49.8 d，微、小量降水日数占各级降水日数的95.3%，夏季降水日数占全年的48.0%。各级降水量和降水日数年际间均为增加趋势，其中小、中降水量和降水日数的增加是年际增加的主要原因，小量降水强度的增强是年降水强度增强的主要原因；四季降水量和降水日数变化趋势也是增加的，其中夏季增加趋势最明显，降水强度除春季减弱趋势外，其他季节均为增加趋势。在和田地区，春夏两季降雨量决定了全年的多寡，小量级别的降水量和降水日数是年降水量和降水日数的主要形式，降水日数是决定年降水量的主要因素；降水量和降水日数都存在明显气候转折年，目前正处于转折点后的增加阶段，小、中降水量和降水日数的增加是降水事件年际变化的主要特征。

关键词: 降水量, 降水日数, 降水强度, 变化趋势, 突变

Abstract: For studying the characteristics and changing tendency of precipitation under the effect of global change in Hotan Prefecture, daily precipitation data from seven meteorological stations, including annual precipitation (Pm), annual precipitation days (Ds), and precipitation intensity (Pi), from 1961 through 2015 were analyzed. The result revealed that the annual mean Pm, Ds and Pi had been increasing, with the rates of 3.7 mm·(10a)^-1, 1.15 d·(10a)^-1 and 0.046 mm·d^-1· (10a)^-1, respectively; Pm and Ds had a big change in 1986. 1986 was the year of climatic transition for the annual average precipitation and precipitation days in the prefecture, and so did the spring and summer precipitations, except for winter. In the prefecture, annual mean Pm was 44.0 mm, with 42.4% at the light precipitation level and 78.4% in spring and summer. Annual mean Ds was 49.8 days, with 95.3% at mini and light precipitation levels, and the summer precipitation days took 48.0% of the year-round. The result also showed that there was an increasing tendency for Pm and Ds at all levels, of which the most distinct increasing reason for Pm and Ds was the increase at light and moderate precipitation levels. Besides, the seasonal precipitation and precipitation days also had increased, especially in summer; Pi also had increased except for spring. From above analyses the following conclusion can be drawn:precipitation in spring and summer determines the annual precipitation; light level Pm and Ds are the chief forms of Pm and Ds, and Ds is the key factor to determine the Pm; precipitation and precipitation days have obvious climate change, is now at the stage of increase after the turning point; the increase of precipitation and precipitation days at light and moderate precipitation levels are the main characteristics of the present annual variation of precipitation.

Key words: precipitation, precipitation days, precipitation intensity, changing tendency, sudden change

中图分类号:

P468.024

布帕提曼·艾拜都拉, 买买提阿布都拉·依米尔, 阿依夏木古丽·买买提, 玉苏甫·阿布拉. 1961-2015年新疆和田地区不同级别降水事件变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1326-1335.

Bupatiman Aibaidoula, Maimaitiabudoula Yimier, Ayixiamuguli Maimaiti, Yusufu Abula. Variation characteristics of precipitation events of different levels in Hotan Prefecture of Xinjiang during 1961-2015[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2017, 39(6): 1326-1335.

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