1961-2014年黄河源区蒸发皿蒸发量变化的多尺度特征及突变分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2018.0072

冰川冻土 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 666-675.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2018.0072

1961-2014年黄河源区蒸发皿蒸发量变化的多尺度特征及突变分析

石明星^1,2,3, 蓝永超¹, 沈永平¹, 田辉¹, 王欣¹, 喇承芳⁴, 马虎迎⁵

1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 甘肃兰州 730000;
2. 兰州交通大学, 甘肃兰州 730070;
3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
4. 黄河水利委员会上游水文水资源局, 甘肃兰州 730000;
5. 兰州石化职业技术学院, 甘肃兰州 730060

收稿日期:2017-09-15 修回日期:2018-02-16 出版日期:2018-08-25 发布日期:2018-10-08
通讯作者: 蓝永超,E-mail:lyc@lzb.ac.cn. E-mail:lyc@lzb.ac.cn
作者简介:石明星(1983-),男,甘肃兰州人,讲师,2010年在兰州交通大学获硕士学位,现为中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院在职博士研究生,从事气候变化、水文水资源研究.E-mail:shimx@mail.lzjtu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目（91225302）；中国科学院重点部署项目（Y322G73001）；国家自然科学基金项目（41530529）资助

Analyses of multiple time scale variation characteristics of pan evaporation and mutation in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2014

SHI Mingxing^1,2,3, LAN Yongchao¹, SHEN Yongping¹, TIAN Hui¹, WANG Xin¹, LA Chengfang⁴, MA Huying⁵

1. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2. Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
4. Upstream Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Yellow River Conservancy Committee, Lanzhou 730000, China;
5. Lanzhou Petrochemical College of Vocational Technology, Lanzhou 730060, China

Received:2017-09-15 Revised:2018-02-16 Online:2018-08-25 Published:2018-10-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于黄河源区相关气象站1961-2014年蒸发皿蒸发数据，利用线性倾向分析、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall法等方法，对黄河源区各分区及整个源区蒸发皿蒸发量变化进行多尺度变化特征及突变分析。结果表明：近50余年来，空间上，黄河源区年平均蒸发量经历了从上游到下游先减小后增加的过程，季节蒸发量变化稍有差异；时间上，黄河源区季节及年平均蒸发量总体呈上升趋势，各分区略有差异，各分区及整个源区蒸发量年代际变化具有较好的一致性。各分区及整个黄河源区年平均及季节平均蒸发量突变点基本一致，均出现在2000年前后，且年与季节平均蒸发量在突变前均值大部分小于突变后的均值。位于源区下游的玛曲-兴海平均蒸发量发生突变的时间较早，且跳跃幅度较小，位于源区中游的达日-玛曲平均蒸发量发生突变的时间较晚，且跳跃幅度较大。对各气象因子的相关分析表明，影响源区年蒸发量变化的主要因子为平均温度。

关键词: 黄河源区, 蒸发皿蒸发量, 突变, 趋势, 跳跃幅度

Abstract: Based on the pan evaporation data from meteorological stations in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 through 2014, the multiple time scale variation and mutation characteristics of pan evaporation in each sub-region and the whole source regions of the river were analyzed with some trend analysis methods such as linear trend analysis, moving average analysis, Mann-Kendall analysis and so on. The result showed that the annual average pan evaporation in the source regions had experienced a process from decreasing to increasing from the upstream to the downstream spatially and the variation of seasonal average pan evaporation had been slightly different. On the whole, the annual and seasonal average pan evaporations had presented a rising trend temporally in the source regions and had been slight different among sub-regions. Decadal change of the pan evaporation in each sub-region and the whole source regions had been basically the same. Mutation of the annual and seasonal average pan evaporations occurred in about 2000 in the sub-regions and the whole source regions. The mutation time of the average pan evaporation in the area between Maqu Station and Xinghai Station located in the downstream of the source regions was earlier with a smaller jump extent. The mutation time of the average pan evaporation in the area between Dari Station and Maqu Station located in the midstream of the source regions was later with a larger jump extent. Correlation analyses between pan evaporation and meteorological factors showed that the mean temperature was the main factor controlling the variation of annual average pan evaporation in the source regions of the Yellow River.

Key words: source regions of the Yellow River, pan evaporation, mutation, trend, jump range

中图分类号:

P333.1

石明星, 蓝永超, 沈永平, 田辉, 王欣, 喇承芳, 马虎迎. 1961-2014年黄河源区蒸发皿蒸发量变化的多尺度特征及突变分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 666-675.

SHI Mingxing, LAN Yongchao, SHEN Yongping, TIAN Hui, WANG Xin, LA Chengfang, MA Huying. Analyses of multiple time scale variation characteristics of pan evaporation and mutation in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2014[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2018, 40(4): 666-675.

参考文献

[1] Yang Xiuqin, Zhong Pingan. Research progress on changes in pan evaporation[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2008, 23(5):1494-1498.[杨秀芹, 钟平安. 蒸发皿蒸发量变化及其研究进展[J]. 地球物理学进展, 2008, 23(5):1494-1498.]
[2] Li Yuetan, Li Xiaoyan, Cui Buli, et al. Trend of pan evaporation and its impact factors over Lake Qinghai basin from 1961 to 2007[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2010, 22(4):616-624.[李岳坦, 李小雁, 崔步礼, 等. 青海湖流域及周边地区蒸发皿蒸发量变化(1961-2007年)及趋势分析[J]. 湖泊科学, 2010, 22(4):616-624.]
[3] IPCC. Climate change 2001:The scientific basis:Contribution of working group Ⅰ to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge, New York:Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[4] IPCC. Climate change 2007:The physical science basis:Contribution of working group Ⅰ to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge, New York:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[5] Pachauri R, Allen M, Barros V, et al. Climate change 2014:synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, Ⅱ and Ⅲ to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Geneva, Switzerland:IPCC, 2014.
[6] Zeng Yan, Qiu Xinfa, Liu Changming, et al. Changes of pan evaporation in China in 1960-2000[J]. Advances in Water Sciences, 2007, 18(3):311-318.[曾燕, 邱新法, 刘昌明, 等. 1960-2000年中国蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J]. 水科学进展, 2007, 18(3):311-318.]
[7] Qiu Xinfa, Liu Changming, Zeng Yan. Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(4):437-442.[邱新法, 刘昌明, 曾燕. 黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(4):437-442.]
[8] Xu Zongxue, He Wanlin. Analysis on the long-term trend of pan evaporation in the Yellow River basin over the past 40 years[J]. Hydrology, 2005, 25(6):6-11.[徐宗学, 和宛琳. 黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势分析[J]. 水文, 2005, 25(6):6-11.]
[9] Peterson T, Golubev V, Groisman P. Evaporation losing its strength[J]. Nature, 1995, 337:687-688.
[10] Chattopadhyay N, Hulme M. Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1997, 87(1):55-73.
[11] Brutsaert W, Parlange M. Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox[J]. Nature, 1998, 396(6706):30.
[12] Roderick M, Farquhar G. The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years[J]. Science, 2002, 298:1410-1411.
[13] Liu Binhui, Xu Ming, Henderson M, et al. A spatial analysis of pan evaporation trends in China, 1955-2004[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004, 109:D15102. DOI:10.1029/2004 JD004511.
[14] Liu Bo. Relationship of pan evaporation change and climate change and the estimation of potential evapotranspiration over the past 40 years in China[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of information Science & Technology, 2005.[刘波. 近40年中国蒸发皿蒸发变化与气候变化的关系及潜在蒸散的估算[D]. 南京:南京信息工程大学, 2005.]
[15] Sheng Qiong. The variation and causes of small pan evaporation over the past 45 years in China[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2006.[盛琼. 近45 a来我国蒸发皿蒸发量的变化及原因分析[D]. 南京:南京信息工程大学, 2006.]
[16] Zuo Hongchao, Li Dongliang, Hu Yinqiao, et al. Trends of climate change and its relation with pan evaporation change in recent 40 years in China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2005, 50(11):1125-1130.[左洪超, 李栋梁, 胡隐樵, 等. 近40 a中国气候变化趋势及其同蒸发皿观测的蒸发量变化的关系[J]. 科学通报, 2005, 50(11):1125-1130.]
[17] Zuo Hongchao, Bao Yan, Zhang Cunjie, et al. An analytic and numerical study on the physical meaning of pan evaporation and its trend in recent 40 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2006, 49(3):680-688.[左洪超, 鲍艳, 张存杰, 等. 蒸发皿蒸发量的物理意义、近40 a变化趋势的分析和数值试验研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(3):680-688.]
[18] Ren Guoyu, Guo Jun. Change in pan evaporation and the influential factors over China:1956-2000[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(1):31-44.[任国玉, 郭军. 中国水面蒸发量的变化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(1):31-44.]
[19] Thomas A. Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2000, 20(4):381-396.
[20] Liu Meng, Xia Ziqiang, Li Junfen, et al. Study on evaporation variation of headwater region of the Yellow River under the conditions of global climate warm up[J]. Yellow River, 2008, 30(9):30-32.[刘猛, 夏自强, 李俊芬, 等. 全球气候变暖背景下黄河源区蒸发变化研究[J]. 人民黄河, 2008, 30(9):30-32.]
[21] Qiu Xinfa, Liu Changming, Zeng Yan. Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(4):437-442.[邱新法, 刘昌明, 曾燕. 黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(4):437-442.]
[22] Ma Xuening, Zhang Mingjun, Wang Shengjie, et al. Evaporation paradox in the Yellow River basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(5):645-656.[马雪宁, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等. "蒸发悖论"在黄河流域的探讨[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(5):645-656.]
[23] Liu Xiaodong, An Zhisheng, Fang Jiangang, et al. Possible variations of precipitation over the Yellow River vally under the global-warming conditions[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2002, 22(5):513-520.[刘晓东, 安芷生, 方建刚, 等. 全球气候变暖条件下黄河流域降水的可能变化[J]. 地理科学, 2002, 22(5):513-520.]
[24] Lü Shaoning, Li Dongliang, Wen Jun, et al. Analysis on periodic variations and abrupt change of air temperature over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under global warming[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2010, 29(6):1378-1385.[吕少宁, 李栋梁, 文军, 等. 全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温周期变化与突变分析[J]. 高原气象, 2010, 29(6):1378-1385.]
[25] Niu Yuguo, Zhang Xuecheng. Preliminary analysis on variations of hydrologic and water resources regime and its genesis of the Yellow River source region[J]. Yellow River, 2005, 27(3):31-33.[牛玉国, 张学成. 黄河源区水文水资源情势变化及其成因初析[J]. 人民黄河, 2005, 27(3):31-33.]
[26] Lan Yongchao, Lu Chengyang, La Chengfang, et al. The fact of climate shift to warm humid in the source regions of the Yellow River and its hydrologic response[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(4):920-928.[蓝永超, 鲁承阳, 喇承芳, 等. 黄河源区气候向暖湿转变的观测事实及其水文响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(4):920-928.]
[27] Lan Yongchao, Hu Xinglin, Ding Hongwei, et al. Multiple time scales analysis of jump and variation of air temperature in mountain area of Hexi inland river basin in the past more than 50 years[J]. Mountain Research, 2014, 32(2):163-170.[蓝永超, 胡兴林, 丁宏伟, 等. 河西内陆河流域山区近50余年来气温变化的多尺度特征和突变分析[J]. 山地学报, 2013, 32(2):163-170.]

1961-2014年黄河源区蒸发皿蒸发量变化的多尺度特征及突变分析

Analyses of multiple time scale variation characteristics of pan evaporation and mutation in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2014

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 3

[1]	李万志, 刘玮, 张调风, 时兴合. 气候和人类活动对黄河源区径流量变化的贡献率研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(5): 985-992.
[2]	熊俊楠, 刘志奇, 范春捆, 张昊, 彭超, 孙铭. 1983-2013年西藏自治区气象灾害时空分布特征与变化趋势[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1221-1231.
[3]	赵煜飞, 刘娜. 中国对流性天气现象观测资料质量控制及其年、季节特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1232-1240.
[4]	布帕提曼·艾拜都拉, 买买提阿布都拉·依米尔, 阿依夏木古丽·买买提, 玉苏甫·阿布拉. 1961-2015年新疆和田地区不同级别降水事件变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1326-1335.
[5]	陈莹璐, 黄春长, 张玉柱, 郭永强, 周亚利, 査小春, 庞奖励, 石彬楠, 刘雯瑾. 黄河源区玛曲段末次冰消期古洪水事件及其光释光测年研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(3): 549-562.
[6]	李育鸿, 李计生, 孙超, 黄晨璐. 甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(3): 651-659.
[7]	蔡鹏, 李芳, 王政权, 赵娴. 1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1538-1543.
[8]	王荣梅, 阿依仙木古丽, 余岚, 阿不都克日木, 李风晶. 新疆喀什地区沙尘暴天气的时空分布特征及防治措施[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1553-1559.
[9]	石磊, 杜军, 周刊社, 卓嘎. 1980-2012年青藏高原土壤湿度时空演变特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(5): 1241-1248.
[10]	蓝永超, 朱云通, 刘根生, 喇承芳, 沈永平, 石明星. 黄河源区气候变化的季节特征与区域差异研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 741-749.
[11]	阎琦, 田莉, 李爽, 崔锦. 辽宁区域性冷空气多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(2): 379-387.
[12]	张志富, 希爽, 余予, 范邵华, 冯明农. 1961-2012年中国5类主要冰冻天气的气候及变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(6): 1435-1442.
[13]	姚正毅, 李晓英, 董治宝. 黄河源区玛多县沙漠化成因与发展过程[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5): 1245-1256.
[14]	石磊, 黄晓清, 尼玛吉, 次仁央宗, 罗珍. 西藏自治区旅游气候适应性分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5): 1412-1419.
[15]	杜军, 马鹏飞, 杜晓辉, 袁雷. 气候变化对藏东北牧业生产关键期的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5): 1361-1371.