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冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 1355-1370.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0151

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 •    下一篇

新疆冰川、 积雪对气候变化的响应(Ⅱ):灾害效应

沈永平1, 苏宏超2, 王国亚3, 毛炜峄4, 王顺德5, 韩萍2, 王宁练1, 李忠勤1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2. 新疆水文水资源局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000;
    3. 甘肃省科学院 地质自然灾害防治研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    4. 新疆气候中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    5. 阿克苏水文水资源勘测局, 新疆 阿克苏 843000
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-05 修回日期:2013-11-20 出版日期:2013-12-25 发布日期:2014-01-11
  • 作者简介:沈永平(1961-),男,陕西西安人,编审/研究员,1985年在中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所获硕士学位,现主要从事寒区水文与全球变化研究及科技期刊编辑. E-mail: shenyp@lzb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951404;2010CB951402);国家自然科学基金项目(41201062;41271083;41271035)资助

The Responses of Glaciers and Snow Cover to Climate Change in Xinjiang (Ⅱ): Hazards Effects

SHEN Yong-ping1, SU Hong-chao2, WANG Guo-ya3, MAO Wei-yi4, WANG Shun-de5, HAN Ping2, WANG Ning-lian1, LI Zhong-qin1   

  1. 1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu730000, China;
    2. Xinjiang Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Ürümq Xinjiang 830000, China;
    3. Geologic Hazards Prevention Institute, Gansu Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;
    4. Xinjiang Climate Center, Ürümq Xinjiang 830002, China;
    5. Aksu Hydrology and Water Resources Reconnaissance Bureau, Aksu Xinjiang 843000, China
  • Received:2013-10-05 Revised:2013-11-20 Online:2013-12-25 Published:2014-01-11

摘要:

新疆地区冰川、积雪广泛分布,在其融水补给河川径流的同时,也常伴有冰川洪水、融雪洪水、冰湖突发洪水、冰川泥石流、冰雪崩和风吹雪等冰雪灾害发生,这些灾害对当地居民居住地以及重要国防干线的安全运营形成较大威胁. 冰川、积雪变化直接影响到冰雪灾害发生的程度与影响范围,新疆的冰川洪水和冰湖突发洪水灾害主要发生在塔里木河流域的喀喇昆仑山、昆仑山以及天山南坡西部一带,融雪洪水灾害主要发生在新疆北部的阿勒泰地区、塔城地区和天山北坡一带,冰川泥石流、冰雪崩灾害主要发生在帕米尔高原、天山西段和西昆仑山地区,风吹雪主要在天山中、西段地区. 随着全球气候变暖,尤其是新疆从1987年开始的气候由暖干向暖湿的转型,冰川退缩加剧,融水量增大,冰川洪水和冰川泥石流灾害随着冰川融水径流的增加而增多;而融雪洪水、雪崩和风吹雪随着气候变化引起的冬季积雪增加和气温升高,其灾害强度在增强;冰崩灾害随着气温升高引起的高山冰体崩解而呈增加趋势. 在新疆地区,冰雪灾害主要表现为冰雪洪水,已观测到近十几年来在气候变化影响下冰雪洪水发生的频次和强度有增加的趋势,塔里木河流域的冰湖溃决洪水和冰川洪水及北疆春季的冰凌和融雪洪水已对当地的生命财产和社会经济发展带来巨大危害,新疆的水资源安全、灾害等问题日益凸显. 预计未来,随着气候增温引起的冰雪融水径流的增加,相关的冰雪灾害增多,因而增加了冰雪灾害的危险程度,并可能形成若干新的灾害点. 面对气候变化诱发的众多冰川、积雪灾害,目前还缺乏对灾害监测、预测预警方面的适应对策. 因此,在全球气候变化不断加速的趋势下,冰雪灾害应引起有关方面的足够重视,加强气候变化对冰雪灾害的影响评估和适应性管理对策研究,使科学技术在减灾方面发挥主导作用.

关键词: 冰雪灾害, 冰雪洪水, 气候变化, 适应性对策, 新疆

Abstract:

Glacier and snow cover distributed widely in Xinjiang, when its melt water supply to the rivers often accompanied by glacial floods, snowmelt floods, glacial lake outburst floods, glacial debris, ice and snow avalanches, snowdrift and other snow disasters. There are greater threats on the local urban residence and the important defense lines because of these disasters. The extent and range of the ice and snow disasters impact subjected to the changes of glacier and snow cover. The glacier flood and glacial lake outburst floods occurred mainly in the Karakoram Mountains, Kunlun Mountains and the western of the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in the Tarim River Basin. The snowmelt floods occurred mainly in Altay area, Tacheng area and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in North Xinjiang. The glacier debris and the ice and snow avalanches disasters occurred mainly in the Pamirs Plateau, the western of the Tianshan Mountains, the Karakorum and the West Kunlun Mountains. The snowdrift occurred mainly in the middle and western of the Tianshan Mountains regions. With global warming, especially the beginning of the climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in 1987 in Xinjiang, the glacier retreat intensified, the melt water increases, the glacier floods and debris flows increased with the increased of glacier melt water, and the snowmelt floods, ice and snow avalanches and snowdrift enhanced with the snow cover increased in winter and the air temperature rise, the alpine ice disintegration caused by ice avalanches with climate warming showed an increasing trend. The ice and snow disasters dominated by the glacier and snow floods in Xinjiang. The increasing trend of the frequency and intensity of glacier and snow floods under the influence of climate change have been observed in the last decade in the Xinjiang region. The water safety and disasters and other problems caused by glacial lake outburst floods and glacial floods in the Tarim Basin and the ice and snowmelt floods in spring in North Xinjiang have become increasingly prominent, and have great harm on the local lives, property and socio-economic development. With the glacier melt water increasing, some new disaster may be formed in the future. For the numerous glaciers, snow disaster induced by the climate change, there is a lack of adaptation on disaster monitoring, forecasting and early warning. So it should be keep an eye on the ice and snow disasters with the global climate change accelerating consistently, and to strengthen the study of the impact assessment and adaptation strategies of the disasters, and make the science and technology play a leading role in disaster reduction.

Key words: ice and snow disaster, ice and snow floods, climate change, adaptation strategies, Xinjiang

中图分类号: 

  • P343.6