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冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 387-394.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0042

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变暖背景下阿勒泰地区寒潮活动变化特征

白松竹, 博尔楠·哈不都拉, 谢秀琴   

  1. 新疆阿勒泰地区气象局, 新疆 阿勒泰 836500
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-04 修回日期:2015-03-20 出版日期:2015-04-25 发布日期:2015-06-06
  • 作者简介:白松竹(1979-), 女, 陕西定边人, 高级工程师, 2003年毕业于宝鸡文理学院, 主要从事短期天气预报和气候变化研究. E-mail: bai-1009@163.com.
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201425)资助

The variation characteristics of cold wave in Altay Prefecture under climate warming background

BAI Songzhu, Boernan Habudula, XIE Xiuqing   

  1. Altay Prefecture Meteorology Bureau of Xinjiang, Altay 836500, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2014-11-04 Revised:2015-03-20 Online:2015-04-25 Published:2015-06-06

摘要:

利用阿勒泰地区7个气象台站1961-2012年逐日气温资料, 采用线性趋势法、Morlet小波分析和相关分析方法分析了阿勒泰地区寒潮频次的气候变化特征和大气环流指数特征. 结果表明: 阿勒泰地区寒潮次数接近于强寒潮次数的2倍, 阿勒泰地区寒潮和强寒潮的月际分布均为单峰型, 11月-翌年2月是寒潮集中发生期, 9月和5月寒潮很少. 近52 a来阿勒泰地区寒潮和强寒潮次数均表现为减少的趋势, 且寒潮次数的减少速率较快; 寒潮和强寒潮活动偏强年和偏弱年有较好的一致性, 只是强寒潮频数偏强、偏弱的年份较少. 寒潮和强寒潮距平指数序列存在多时间尺度结构, 并存在着明显的年代际尺度的周期性变化. 相关分析表明大气环流特征量与阿勒泰地区寒潮日数具有较好的对应关系.

关键词: 寒潮, 全球变暖, 阿勒泰地区, 大气环流

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the data from seven representative weather stations in Altay Prefecture from 1961 to 2012, the daily minimum air temperature data were studied by using trend coefficient, Morlet wavelet transformation and correlation analysis. Thus, the variation of cold wave was analyzed. It is found that the cold wave frequency was about two times of the number of strong cold wave. The monthly variation of cold waves had a unimodal type, concentrating in between November and the next February, but less occurring in between September and May. In the last 52 years, the numbers of cold wave and strong cold wave have decreased slightly. The anomaly series of cold wave shows multi-time scale structure and appears decadal variation. Correlation analysis demonstrates that there is significant correlation between cold wave duration and the characteristic quantity of atmospheric circulation in Altay Prefecture.

Key words: cold wave, global climate warming, Altay Prefecture, atmospheric circulation

中图分类号: 

  • P425.5+4