气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0054

冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 470-479.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0054

气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献

马龙¹, 刘廷玺¹, 马丽², 孙敏³, 丁涛³, 辛显华³

1. 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 内蒙古呼和浩特 010018;
2. 巴彦淖尔市临河区水务局, 内蒙古巴彦淖尔 015000;
3. 巴彦淖尔市水利水电勘测设计院, 内蒙古巴彦淖尔 015000

收稿日期:2014-08-19 修回日期:2015-03-12 出版日期:2015-04-25 发布日期:2015-06-06
作者简介:马龙, 男, (1978-), 内蒙古呼和浩特人, 2007年毕业于内蒙古农业大学获工学博士学位, 主要从事水文及水资源、环境演变、气候变化及与环境响应关系研究. E-mail: malong4444333@163.com.
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2014MS0407; 2010BS0608); 内蒙古自治区草原英才团队“半干旱地区影响水资源高效利用的水文过程及其调控技术创新人才团队”; 国家自然科学基金项目(50869005)资助

The effect of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Liaohe River, Inner Mongolia

MA Long¹, LIU Tingxi¹, MA Li², SUN Min³, DING Tao³, XIN Xianhua³

1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China;
2. Water Authority in Linhe District of Bayannur, Bayannur 015000, Inner Mongolia, China;
3. Irrigation and Hydroelectricity Survey and Designing Institute of Bayannur, Bayannur 015000, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2014-08-19 Revised:2015-03-12 Online:2015-04-25 Published:2015-06-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

辽河中上游地区腹地是科尔沁沙地, 河流径流是其重要补给源, 研究径流及其变化原因对水资源合理开发利用、生态环境治理有重要的实践意义. 以辽河中上游地区下洼、福山地、乌丹3个典型水文站点为基础, 将气候变化归结为水热条件变化, 通过改进的累积量斜率变化率比较法, 定量分析径流变化、气候变化和人类活动对径流变化量的贡献. 结果表明: 径流量多年来呈减少趋势, 随降水的增加而增加, 随平均气温的升高而减少. 径流量在2000年代最小, 相对1990年代减少了45.89%~82.13%. 径流突变点为1995年和1998年, 1995-2010年(1999-2010年)与1957-1994年(1957-1998年)相比, 下洼、福山地、乌丹站控制流域气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为41.57%、60.20%和36.76%, 人类活动贡献率分别为58.43%、39.80%和63.24%.

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 径流, 贡献率, 辽河

Abstract:

The Liaohe River is located in the middle and upper reaches and supplies the Khorchin sandy land. It is significant to study the runoff variation and its causes for water resources reasonable exploitation and eco-environment manage in the river basin. The climate change is attributed to hydro-thermal conditions change. The comparison way of cumulative slope change rate is improved, and runoff change, climate change and the contribution of human activities to runoff change are analyzed quantitatively based on the data from three typical hydrometric stations (Xiawa, Fushandi and Wudan) on the middle and upper reaches of the river. It is found that runoff has been decreased slowly for many years, including some increase due to precipitation increasing and some decrease due to air temperature rising. In the 2000s, runoff reached a minimum, 45.89%~82.13% of that in the 1990s. 1995 and 1998 were the runoff abrupt change years. From 1995 to 2010 (1999 to 2010) the climate change in the areas controlled by Xiawa, Fushandi and Wudan hydrometric stations contributed 41.57%、60.20% and 36.76%, respectively, to the runoff decrease, and the human activities contributed 58.43%、39.80% and 63.24%, respectively, to the runoff decrease, as compared with that from 1957 to 1994 (1957 to 1998).

Key words: climate change, human activity, runoff, contribution ratio, Liaohe River

中图分类号:

P343.9

马龙, 刘廷玺, 马丽, 孙敏, 丁涛, 辛显华. 气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(2): 470-479.

MA Long, LIU Tingxi, MA Li, SUN Min, DING Tao, XIN Xianhua. The effect of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Liaohe River, Inner Mongolia[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2015, 37(2): 470-479.

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气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献

The effect of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Liaohe River, Inner Mongolia

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