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冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 327-335.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0036

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

21世纪北半球中高纬度净初级生产力(NPP)变化及其与气候因子之间的关系

施红霞, 王澄海   

  1. 兰州大学 大气科学学院/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-26 修回日期:2015-03-16 出版日期:2015-04-25 发布日期:2015-06-06
  • 通讯作者: 王澄海, E-mail: wch@lzu.edu.cn. E-mail:wch@lzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:施红霞(1986-), 女, 甘肃永登人, 2012年在兰州大学获硕士学位, 现为兰州大学在读博士研究生, 主要从事气候变化的预估研究. E-mail: shihx09@lzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CBA01808); 国家自然科学基金项目(91437217; 41275061; 41471034)资助

Change of NPP at the mid-high latitude of Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century and its relation with climate factors

SHI Hongxia, WANG Chenghai   

  1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2014-12-26 Revised:2015-03-16 Online:2015-04-25 Published:2015-06-06

摘要:

基于CMIP5模式模拟的净初级生产力(NPP), 对21世纪初期(2016-2035年), 中期(2046-2065年)和末期(2080-2099年)三种排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)北半球中高纬度陆地NPP的时空变化进行了预估, 并结合气候因子分析了NPP的变化和气温、降水、辐射之间的关系. 结果表明: 相对于1986-2005年, 21世纪北半球中高纬度陆地NPP呈增加趋势, RCP8.5情景下NPP的增加比RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下更为明显; 在季节变化上, 北半球中高纬度NPP也以增加为主, 且NPP在夏季, 尤其是6月增加最显著. NPP对气候变化的响应存在明显的区域差异性, 在中低排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5), 相对于1986-2005年, 21世纪北半球中高纬度地区温度显著影响的范围在逐渐缩小, 而辐射和降水显著影响的范围在扩大. 在高排放情景下(RCP8.5), 21世纪北半球中高纬度地区NPP的变化主要与温度有关.

关键词: CMIP5, 净初级生产力(NPP), 气候变化, 预估

Abstract:

Based on the simulated net primarily production (NPP) from CMIP5, the spatial-temporal characteristics of NPP at the mid-high latitude of Northern Hemisphere landmass for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.3) during the early (2016-2035), middle (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) periods of the 21st century are estimated. Combined with climatic factors, the relation between NPP and temperature, precipitation and surface shortwave radiation is also discussed. The results show that, relative to the reference period of 1986-2005, NPP at the mid-high latitude of Northern Hemisphere will represent an increasing trend during the 21st century, and the increase of NPP under RCP8.5 is greater than that under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. As regards seasonal change, NPP at the mid-high latitude of Northern Hemisphere also shows an increasing trend, and the most obvious change of NPP appears in summer, especially in June. Furthermore, the response of NPP to climate change varies regionally. Relative to 1986-2005, for the middle and low scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5), the range of significant impact of temperature on NPP at the mid-high latitude of Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century will gradually go down, while that of radiation and precipitation will expand. Under RCP8.5, the change of NPP at the mid-high latitude of Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century will essentially depend on temperature.

Key words: CMIP5, net primarily production (NPP), climate change, projection

中图分类号: 

  • P435