Meiquan ZHU, Xiaoying JIN, Fuqiang CHE, Hongwei WANG, Wenhui WANG, Gangyi ZHOU, Guoyu LI, Xinyu LI, Ruixia HE, Ruxuan YANG, Jianjun TANG, Shanzhen LI, Ze ZHANG, Huijun JIN
The effect of pipeline insulation layer in permafrost area is closely related to the randomness of evaluation index changes, and the previous evaluation model of pipeline insulation layer effect in permafrost area has certain limitations and shortcomings. In order to improve the application effectiveness of insulation measures for pipelines in permafrost regions, based on the comprehensive evaluation method and combining the Driving force-State-Response (DSR) model theory, coefficient of variation weight theory and cloud model theory, in this paper a suitable comprehensive cloud model has been built for the evaluation of the thermal effect of insulated pipelines in permafrost regions. The DSR framework is used in the developed model to ensure the reliability of the index system. The weight of the index calculated by the coefficient of variation method ensures objectivity; the cloud model solves the randomness problem that cannot reflect the standard classification and index data acquisition of the environmental evaluation process of pipelines in permafrost regions. In order to validate the evaluation model of insulating effects for buried oil pipelines in permafrost regions, three representative monitoring sites at Kilometerage Posts MDX007, MDX113, MDX304 and MDX364 along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines (Mo’he-Daqing Line or MDX) are taken as examples. The comprehensive cloud model is used for evaluating the thermal effect of pipeline insulation measures. The results show that the comprehensive model-based analysis can effectively guide the implementation plan of insulation measures for Russian-Chinese Crude Oil Pipelines, and give corresponding measure suggestions based on the corresponding insulation effect failure types. Based on the evaluation results, the implementation plan of insulation measures for the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines is analyzed and advised for optimizing the thermal effect of insulative measures. The comprehensive cloud model can combine the advantages of different theoretical models to take into full account of the effectiveness and soundness of the comprehensive analysis of cold regions engineering environment evaluation, with a promising application potential. The research results can provide strategic scientific support for the safe and stable operation and sustainable development of China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines.