LI Zikang, YAO Jimin, CHEN Jie, WANG Sheng, GU Lianglei, LI Ren, HU Guojie, XIAO Yao, WU Tonghua, WU Xiaodong, SHI Jianzong, QIAO Yongping, WANG Shenning, WU Yifan
In the context of global warming, the degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has altered the hydrothermal dynamics of the active layer and the surface energy balance, exerting significant impacts on regional ecology, engineering infrastructure, and global climate. Conducting relevant research is of great significance for the safety and stability of alpine ecosystems on the plateau. Due to the complex terrain of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the limited number of monitoring stations, numerical modeling has become a commonly used research approach. However, existing models still have room for improvement in simulating soil moisture. GEOtop is a process-based distributed hydrological model that enhances the simulation of water movement by solving three-dimensional flow equations, yet its application in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau remains relatively limited. Taking the Tanggula station, located in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, as the research object, this study systematically analyzed the variation characteristics of active layer hydrothermal processes and surface energy fluxes based on observational data from 2005 to 2006, and conducted numerical simulation experiments using the GEOtop model. The results showed that soil temperature in the active layer in the Tanggula region exhibited a sinusoidal pattern, with decreasing amplitude and increasing phase lag with depth. Soil moisture displayed pronounced seasonal variations that were closely synchronized with precipitation. The freeze-thaw process was characterized by “unidirectional thawing and bidirectional freezing”. All surface energy fluxes varied seasonally, and sensible and latent heat showed distinct seasonal alternation patterns. In addition, the GEOtop model could well simulate the dynamic variations of soil temperature and moisture, with average correlation coefficients (r) above 0.94. The simulation of the active layer thawing process was also relatively accurate, with a deviation of only 4% in the simulated active layer thickness. Regarding surface energy fluxes, the GEOtop model performed well in simulating net radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat, but its simulation of surface soil heat flux had certain limitations due to the simplified model assumptions. Overall, the GEOtop model can accurately describe the surface-active layer hydrothermal processes in the Tanggula permafrost region, demonstrating certain applicability in permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.