Lu Ruren, Li Deji
The Dongru Longba, with a drainage area of 23.74 km2, and 80 km from Bomi County, Tibet, is located along the Chengdu-Lasa Highway. There are 2.06 km2 of modern glacier and snow basin. Debris flows induced by ice-snow melt water occurred repeatedly in the 1960s-1970s. The Yupu Zangbu River section of Palong Zangbu River was blocked up and changed to a lake, which destroyed the roadbed of the Chengdu-Lasa Highway.Topography in the Dongru Longba is rugged, mountain slope is precipitous, gully bed gradient is greater. The maximum amplitude from peak to valley in basin is 2500 m, average gradient of mountain slojje is above 33°, average gradient of the gullybed is 214.0%. The loose meterials storage in the basin is about 179.6 million m3. The annual average temperature in the basin is about 7℃, the annual precipitation is about 750 mm. Because of the influence of ice-snow melt water, the daily amplitude of discharge in summer is up to 3.A ice-snow-melt water debris flow occurred in the Dongru Longba on June 12, 1975, velocity below the outlet is 8.1 m/s, discharge is 562.1 m3/s, total quantity of the debris flow deposit is 12.2 thousand nv, 290 m of the Chengdu-Lasa Highway was dashed and buried, 1.5 km of the highway roadbed was destroyed by dam burst flood, it had been restored after a half month.After having analyzed debris flows in different scales in history, authors recongnize that the debris flow development tendency in the Dongru Longba is weakening, so it is suitable that bridge opining scheme of the Chengdu-Lasa Highway through the gully can deal with middel scale debris flows.The middle and long range forecast of ice-snow-melt water debris flow in the southeast Tibet, is a extremely complex problem, it has been proved from analyzing that in a period of ice-snow-melt water debris flows, relative wet-warm, wet-cold and dry-warm years are decreasingly favourable to apperance of this phenomenon, but indry-cold years, it nardly occurs. The detail explanation is that if precipition in earlier pe riod (a year or years ago, winter and spring etc.) is plentiful, the atmospheric temperature in later stage rises suddenly (0.6-1.2℃ from year to year) or temperature in spring and summer leaps up, it will first cause ice-snow-melt water debris flow taking snowmelt water as main water source, after this, lead to appearance of glacier debris flows taking ice-snow-melt water as major water source; suppose long or short rain process appears, it will quickly accelerate evolution of this nature process. This is only weather criterion for middle and long range forcast of ice-snow-melt water debris flows by authors. It will be tested in the coming practice.