GAO Yonggang, ZHAO Huiying, GAO Feng, ZHU Haixia, QU Huihui, ZHAO Fang
The study of climate change in future and its influence on wetlands in the Greater Khingan Mountains has significance for the region to deal with and adapt climate change. Based on the air temperature and precipitation predicted by RCM-PRECIS under the IPCC Scenarios A2 and B2, with the methods of Mann-Kendall (M-K method) nonparametric test and linear tendency rate, climate change trend and its influence on wetlands were analyzed from 2015 to 2050 in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The results show that under the Scenarios A2 and B2, yearly average air temperature will increase significantly, the warming rate of Scenario A2 will be higher than that of Scenario B2, the warming rate for Scenarios A2 and B2 will be 0.54 ℃·(10a)-1 and 0.41 ℃·(10a)-1, respectively, and the warming rate of Scenario A2 will be consistent with that of Northeast China (0.56 ℃·(10a)-1), the warming rate of Scenario B2 will be lower than that of Northeast China from 2015 to 2050. Since 2032, air temperature will appear an abruptly warming, especially in the Greater Khingan Mountains. For seasonal average air temperatures under the two scenarios, the warming rate in descending order will be summer, winter, spring and autumn, respectively; the warming rate in descending order for Scenario A2 will be 0.59, 0.56, 0.56, and 0.52 ℃·(10a)-1, respectively; that for Scenario B2 will be 0.48, 0.47, 0.42 and 0.37 ℃·(10a)-1, respectively. Temporally, the warming mutation points will be different; the significant warming periods will be different too in different seasons. Under the two scenarios, yearly precipitation will be slightly decreasing from 2015 to 2050, but there will be no significant change through the M-K testing. Overall, the precipitation in summer will be nearly all the same, accounting for about 60% of the annual precipitation, followed by spring and autumn, accounting for about 18%-19% of the annual precipitation, for the future 36 a in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The future climate will be warming and drying in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The wetland ecosystem in the Greater Khingan Mountains will be heavier stress by the future climate warming and drying in the 2020s and 2040s. The warming and drying climate trend will be one of the main cause for atrophy and degeneration of the wetland ecosystem in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The wetland ecosystem will still be under great threat from climate warming and drying, and atrophy and severe degradation will be occurred in the Greater Khingan Mountains.