WANG Xiuqin, LU Xinyu, MA Yu, WANG Xu
In this study, the disaster data by the snowstorm (e.g. number of livestock affected, crops affected area and economic losses) were used to reveal the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of snow disasters in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1955 to 2017. Firstly, the snow disaster index in Xinjiang was constructed by using the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. Then, the approximate algorithm for acquiring the distribution density of continuous random variables was used to calculate the distribution function of the snow disaster index. Finally, according to the characteristics of the distribution function and the probability level distribution of natural disaster risk events, the zoning of snow disaster level in Xinjiang was conducted. The results show that:(1) the occurrence of snow disasters in northern Xinjiang is more than that in southern Xinjiang, in mountain regions are more than in basin regions and in the west is more than in the east of Xinjiang. Furthermore, this mainly occurs in the Altai Mountains, Tianshan Mountains and Kunlun Mountains. The worst disasters are located in Aletai, Yili and Tacheng Prefectures. Particularly, after 2000, the snow disaster has showed obvious high-level shock characteristics; (2) the snow disaster index constructed by the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method can objectively judge the magnitude of the snow disaster. (3) the snow disaster in Xinjiang follows the gamma distribution, and the zoning based on this theory shows that the high-incidence areas and heavy disaster areas take place in Altay, Tacheng and Yili, the frequent areas in the south foot of the Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains, and the snow disaster occurs less in Eastern Xinjiang. The above research provides a theoretical basis for decision-making services and climate feasibility demonstration, meanwhile, which is helpful for scientifically and accurately formulating disaster prevention and preparedness measures, timely organizing snow disaster emergency rescue work, and recovering the post-disaster reconstruction.